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YMH2, (3, -1) formula strategy, +381% profit, week of 23-27 January 2012


Hi,
Basis intra-day trading the March $5 Dow (YMH2) futures with the (3, -1) formula strategy with trailing stops, here are the results for the week of 23-27 January 2012.

Summary:
Net: +$1905 profit representing a 381% profit basis intra-day margin of $500.

23 January 2012, March e-mini $5 Dow (YMH2) futures:
The (3, -1) formula strategy printed.
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7213/-1/ymh2-3-1-formula-1-618-stretch-profit-23-january-2012
‎23 January 2012 (16:17PDT) The March $5 Dow futures (YMH2) A session long, 12628, was measured as the fade, i.e., (-1) of the (3, -1) formula, from unchanged less the Stretch. 12654 - 33 = 12621. 12619 was the A session low. Risk: $15 if you took a profit anywhere except eighteen minutes during the 23 January trading day. Fading at unchanged less the Stretch calculation (12654 - 33 = 12621) produced a maximum risk of 11 points ($55) per contract.
(-1) of (3, -1): Unchanged - Stretch = 12654 - 33 = 12621, the fade.
(3) of (3, -1) : 12619 + 33 + 33 + 33 = 12718 represents the (3) of (3, -1), but the price measuring objective was nine points above the daily high, 12709.

**********************************************************************24 January 2012, March e-mini $5 Dow (YMH2) futures:
The (3, -1) formula strategy printed.
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7227/-1/ymh2-3-1-formula-stop-loss-0-382-stretch-24-january-2012
PIVOT POINT: 12613.
I was stopped out. 23 January settlement: 12650
The (3, -1) formula strategy did not print a price measuring objective. Instead I was STOPPED OUT, ... 12 point loss.
Basis intra-day trading the (3, -1) formula strategy for the March $5 Dow (YMH2) futures, the first trade was stopped out.
12650 - 39 = 12621 (with a stop at 12609, i.e., 0.382% of the Stretch = 29 x 0.382% = 11.

**********************************************************************25 January 2012, March e-mini $5 Dow (YMH2) futures:
The (3, -1) formula strategy printed.
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7218/-1/ymh2-3-1-formula-3x-stretch-profit-25-january-2012
12626 + 40 = 12666 represents the (-1) of the (3, -1) formula.
12666 - 25 - 25 - 25 = 12591 represents the (3) of the (3, -1) formula.
[Just a note, 12638 - 25 - 25 - 25 = 12563.

**********************************************************************
26 January 2012, March e-mini $5 Dow (YMH2) futures:
The (3, -1) formula strategy printed.
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7225/-1/ymh2-3-1-formula-3x-stretch-profit-26-january-2012
12694 - 34 = 12660 .......... = Open - Stretch = 12660 (low = 12656)
12660 + 34 + 34 + 34 = 12762 = Fade + Stretch + Stretch + Stretch
12786 = high 26 January 2012

**********************************************************************27 January 2012, March e-mini $5 Dow (YMH2) futures:
The (3, -1) formula strategy printed.
http://www.mypivots.com/board/topic/7226/-1/ymh2-3-1-formula-stretch-profits-27-january-2012
Faded first pullback from unchanged providing a profit anywhere between 12685 and the high 12720. The PIVOT POINT was 12703.
Applying technical analysis to real time trading, the (3, -1) formula strategy printed.
PIVOT POINT - 38 - 38 - 38 = 12589
12703 - Stretch - Stretch - Stretch = 12589 (12576 = low 27 January 2012)
Namaste
Hunter - Last week, you exchanged posts with someone asking about clarification of your methodology.

Did you pursue that?

I ask because you regularly post your trades. Yet I can't make heads or tails of what you're doing. Others have addressed the matter of not knowing where you enter your trades. How do you determine which multiplier to use? How do you determine which direction you're going to trade?

Often, your explanations seems like an after the fact explanation... or they presume the reader knows other information (like specifics of your trading approach).

Given the fact that you regularly post your trades, I assume you want to share what you're doing. Unfortunately, key pieces of your methodology seem to always be missing.

Here's what I know.

You use the Stretch as a key part of your method.

You calculate the stretch, based on the evening session open.

You use the evening session open as the start of your trading day.

You look to fade an initial move off the open. But I have no idea where you look to fade.

You multiply the stretch by .382, 1.618, 2.618 or 4.24 to calculate the distance from the previous close to enter your trade.

You multiply the stretch by 3 to calculate the points you wish to capture in a trade.

If you could fill in the blanks of your system, perhaps others will reply to your trade explanations.

Right now... for me... it's pointless because I don't understand how you determine where to enter your trades.
Hunter - I just went through your post for 1/26-27 and it was completely confusing.

Perhaps if you walked through your trade day, explaining what you were anticipating and what confirmed it, including the price and time!!! it might make sense.

Your use of fib multipliers and stretch (or previous day's range) seems completely arbitrary. All too often, you state what you did (or calculated) as if it was the obvious thing to do. Yet I have no idea why you subtracted the stretch three times off the pivot (not the high... or open... or previous close)... or why .500% and .618% of the previous day's range are relevant.

You know.... if you said the 1/26 high was the recent high... and the subsequent low took out short term lows.. so that you were looking (on 1/27) for resistance to be a retracement of between .500 and .618 THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE! But you say it in a way that sounds completely random. It lacks context as a trader.

Additionally, if you started you post by pointing out the gravestone doji on 1/26 indicated a top instead making it an afterthought it might give more context.
ETM (and all),

My understanding after reading Hunter's current and historical posts and PMing with him is that his core strategy is as follows:

Take Toby Crabel's STRETCH (which is shown daily on mypivots) and simply multiply it by the Fibs 1.618, 2.618 and 4.25. Those calculated "point amounts" are then used both above and below the prior sessions CLOSE (or settlement) as potential areas to FADE an initial move as the next trading session opens. You have those calculated price levels above and below the market with the 1.618 typically being the one to fade off of with a trade entry. BUT, there is discretion based on price action etc. as to whether to fade that level or not ... or to fade the "next" level etc.

The initial stoploss once a trade is entered is using .618 (or another small fib amount) of the STRETCH while looking for THREE TIMES (3X) that "risked" amount of .618 (in this scenario) of the STRETCH from the trade entry. Again, in this scenario, it's based on initiating the trade at the 1.618 times the STRETCH ... whatever price the calculations show it to be.

BUT, Hunter alluded to ALSO basing the projected fade levels off of the OPEN in some cases vs. the prior session's settlement/close ... which is also discretionary as to whether one uses the prior session's CLOSE or the next sessions OPEN. Also, a discretionary "call."

So, my understanding in summary is simply this. The STRETCH is multiplied by Fib numbers. AND, those calculated point amounts are then based on either the PRIOR SESSION'S CLOSE (settlement) ... OR ... the CURRENT SESSION'S OPEN. And therin lies MORE discretion.

What STRETCH X Fib is used ... and ... whether you BASE it off of the prior session close or the current session's open to find a trade entry begins to "muddy the water" in my opinion.

This means you have 3 fib calculations and 2 potential places to base them off of for a fade trade entry point/area. In other words, there are 6 potential price levels to fade short ... and 6 potential prices to fade long on any given session/day. And there's no solid rationale for which fib to use or which "base" to use (the prior close OR the current open). That aspect is DISCRETIONARY.

Hunter also alluded to "A" and "B" sessions, and I've not seen this vernacular applied before, so I do not know what "A" and "B" refer to in terms of sessions, hours etc. and the open or close of each that he refers to.

In this post I'm simply sharing what we all try to do, which is understand what strategy someone is posting about in a way that provides clarity and specificity as best as can be offered.

Hope this helps in that regard. And if I'm incorrect in the CORE of this strategy, anyone feel free to adjust what I've described with the same specificity. BECAUSE RIGHT NOW, WHILE I LIKE THE CORE OF THE STRATEGERY, WITH SO MANY VARIABLES O/N THE TABLE, IT'S LIKE FLIPPING 6 COINS HOPING FOR "HEADS" O/N ALL AND PULLING A MONKEY OUT OF YOUR @SS TO MAKE THIS THING WORK!

Yeah, the more I review and think about the posts on this particular strategery and the whanker-jawwed way it's posted with peculiar verbiage ... well, maybe that's why there were so many negative votes on these posts. Hell, I feel like I'm reading something that requires an enigma machine to decipher ... or a rosetta stone. Fuuuk!

Brain Fried Monkey Meat
Sorry on prior post ranting ... just feel like Chevy Chase in Christmas Vacation when he got his BONUS check that he opened in front of the family, only to find a membership to some diddly thing other than pay for the swimming pool he'd already paid for to be plunked down in his back yard. This is it:

Probably gotta click on the text of the Youtube screen if it doesn't play right away.


Hi ETM,
Q: Last week, you exchanged posts with someone asking about clarification of your methodology.
Did you pursue that? Yes, people ask and I reply.

A: Yes again. Recently, another trader and I have been exchanging e-mails about my strategies.
Her reply, ...
"Greetings Hunter,
I finally got it! Although the stretch number I have based on CME website is somewhat different from yours, it is close enough. 26 Jan2012 plugging the stretch number I have to fade the first stretch to buy @12645 and to fade the stretch to sell @12723. I placed a paper trade long @12653 at 11:46pm EST and covered it @12703 at 6:41am EST. It was slightly above 1.618 stretch from O/N low. The O/N high was 3 points below the sell signal of 12723.
Thank you again, Hunter. The (3,-1) formula is absolutely fascinating and profitable."

ETM, I'ld like to thank you for your shared interests before I return to answering your post.
Yes, I use the Stretch as a part of my (3, -1) formula strategy, as well as 1.618% of the Stretch to identify a place to fade the first move away from unchanged. It's not a cookie cutter strategy because other factors are considered, like Pivot Points, etc,.

No, I believe Tony Crabel's Stretch calculation is based on the B session (NYSE trading hours) trading hours. The Stretch is obtained, each day, from www.mypivots.com ... DAILY NOTES .... http://www.mypivots.com/dailynotes

Yes, My trading day includes both the A session and the B session.

Yes, I fade the first price move from the open. The fade is at the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch. And the trade execution is based on real time candlestick analysis (and consideration to price spikes that print significantly outside Bollinger Bands and their respective time frames, as well as other events. Stops are usually around 0.236%, 0.382%, 0.50% and 0.618% of the Stretch.

The opening high was 12639.
The Pivot Point is 12637, which was obtained at www.mypivots.com. The daily trend is down. Tonight, so far, prices are not trading above the Pivot Point. Instead March $5 Dow (YMH2) futures printed a low that was 95 points beneath the Pivot Point. The failure through the Pivot Point was a sell signal. A price move higher than 12649 (unchanged + Stretch = 12649) never occurred, which would have also triggered a sell signal after real time analysis.

INTRA-DAY TRADING EQUITY INDEX FUTURES IS A REAL TIME EVENT.

Yes, I calculate Fibonaccis of the Stretch. Clarification needs to be mentioned here. Stop Loss orders are usually the Fibonaccis that are less than the Stretch, i.e., 0.618%, 0.5%, 0.382%, and 0.236% of the Stretch. The Fibonaccis of the Stretch are never applied to the 'fade the first move away from unchanged' strategy.

Yes, The "fade" is at the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch. 2.618% of the Stretch price moves almost always retrace by the Stretch. Take note to identify where in a price pattern 2.618% Stretch corrections may occur. They almost always reverse. (There's a trade entry to consider.) If you get a Stretch correction, you can usually expect the daily trading range trend to move more closely to 4.25% of the Stretch. Daily trading ranges often approach 4.25% of the Stretch, unless a narrow range cluster of daily trading ranges are the indicating slowing momentum, as they are now.

The goal is to identify an intra-day price direction that provides an opportunity to take a profit before the (3) of the (3, -1) formula price measuring objective is achieved. Ideally, if you are late to the trade entry, a pullback can be measured by the Stretch or the greater Fibonaccis of the Stretch, i.e., 1.618%, 2.618% or 4.25%.

This should help you with a greater understanding.
Namaste
DUDE!

Your STRETCH "man" is not Tony Crable or Coby Trable or Anthony M. Krabell the 3rd ... not even Koby Steak House in Crable, U.S.A.

My buddy who traded with him didn't call him that ... nor did I when I was around him.

So mister hunter stretchmaster ... his name is TOBY CRABEL ... TOBY CRABLE ... TOBY freakin' CRABEL. Give the man and his name credit where it's due. Btw, it's TOBY CRABEL. Did I mention that his name is TOBY CRABEL!

In the meantime, this is gettin' kind of whacky with your posts that read like an alien's last will and testament punched into the motherboard before his plutonium powered disk shaped craft busted into a small hill just inside of Area 51.

Just had a telekenitic flash from the alien ... he was looking for a guy named TOBY CRABEL. Evidently he's trading wormhole futures.

In the meantime, I'm sure the alien dude (his name is grfobitzor) and TOBY and mostly the folks hitting mypivots are curious about what I laid out above as your trading strategery. And the grfobitzor and TOBY just touched my mind with the idea of you posting on a topic/thread of your own that you create. They both said it'd keep the regular postings from being so noisy with heiroglyphics interrupting the rest of cogent and clear sharings of trading information devoid of "if-thens" ... and past-tense, here's how MY s&33T knocked it out and produced a yearly return of 2.5 billion% based on just today's pre-fabricated, projected (non)results.

I'm MonkeyMeat and I approve this message
This is TOBY CRABEL (circa 2001)

Click image for original size
toby crabel 2001 pic


This is grfobitzor (aka alien)

Click image for original size
alien grfobitzor
Hi MM,
Until one of you can pull the Holy Grail out from under, ... it is called "trading." Trading is not perfect. Yes, the rule of thumb is to "always trade from unchanged." If $65 of slippage, for lack of a better word, concerns you, don't trade futures. There are those times when trading from the open (see 3 January where fading 1.618% of the Stretch presenting the best trading opportunity of the day.) It's called trading not "fishing in the Holy Grail." The gaps where trading from the open is a measurement worth considering are almost always small gaps. Measuring from the open is the occasional exception to the rule.

Applying a Stop Loss order that is 0.618% of the Stretch (21 points for 30 January) is risking a 21% draw against the account, and matches the first Fibonacci of the Stretch level below the first Stretch away from unchanged. Example: Unchanged - Stretch = 12579. Unchanged - 1.618% Stretch = 12558. That's why Stop Loss orders that are 0.618% of the Stretch are NEVER used. If you can't risk 13 points ($65 per contract) on a trade, maybe there's safety elsewhere. Example: The 25 January six point gap up opening that measured a reversal at the Stretch below the opening, also correlated to a 1.618% of the Stretch measurement from the previous day's last hour trading high. Both pointed to a reversal near 12660. To measurements that correlate to an approximate level to fade.

The A session opens at 13:30PDT, .... 13:30PDT - 14:30PDT when trading stops for a thirty minute maintence and then re-opens as the A session, until the B session opens at the same time as the NYSE, 06:30PDT. These hours are at www.cmegroup.com.

Trade entry: Apply the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch away from unchanged, with respect to the unforeseeable factors like a failure at the Pivot Point, a +202 gap open, or ... etc.

Breaking up a 250 lb dog fight was easier than this rigamoral. When I green-broke my first horse, it took less time to make it a trail horse than this rodeo. There are several members here at www.mypivots.com, who have replied that they understand my techniques. Thanks for sharing your interests.
Namaste
There are several members here at www.mypivots.com, who have replied that they understand my techniques.



Perhaps one (or more) of them should chime in. Are any of them consistently making money off your system?

One main problem I have with your explanations is they are impossible to track!!!

On your shared correspondence of 1/26-1/27. The trader went long 8 points above the targeted entry. Why?

In my book, if you have an entry price that's not hit, then you don't get filled.

How do you determine if you're fading the stretch... or dismissing that number and trading stretch times 1.618?

How do you determine if your entry is not likely to be hit and enter your trade anyway?

You know... if your approach is using numerous levels of support and resistance to trade off of.... and using stretch times three as points you hope to capture I can get that. But your explanations seem to omit which level and direction to trade.

I would be happy to walk through a couple of days trades with you and hash it out so the average trader could make sense of it. But we would have to stick with those specific dates. In previous posts, I asked about trades on Friday morning. You responded by bringing up Sunday nights numbers. That doesn't help.

Above, you were talking about $65 slippage. What was that in reference to? These seemingly random sidebars only add to the confusion.

BTW Why didn't you buy on Sunday night?

Let me know if you want to work together on this.