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YMH2, (3, -1) formula, Stretch profits, 4.25% Stretch reversal, 30 January 2012


Hi,
30 January 2012:
One of the other www.mypivots.com members also measured a fade from the NYSE open the March $5 Dow B session open.

12512 - 35 = 12477 ... B session open (12515 - 35 = 12480)
12476 = low.

I was measuring a fade from the B session open, as well as measuring the 4.25% of the Stretch from the open, and from the previous settlement, because prices drifted lower all night into the B session open and would probably correct after a 4.25% of the Stretch pullback. Within two minutes of the +11 opening gap, the high, 12639, immediately failed the pivot point, 12637.

Previous settlement - 4.25% of the Stretch = 12614 - 148 = 12466
A session OPEN - 4.25% of the Stretch = 12625 - 148 = 12477.
12476 = low.

"You" asked about the how I determine the fade trade entry, and why and when I choose to execute. Go back and look at the candlesticks at the price levels I posted. Interpret the candlesticks extra carefully around the reversal target levels. The price rotations around these Stretch and Fibonaccis of the Stretch are expected to occur. Markets tend to trade in two directions.
Namaste
Great stuff H......
If you're a retracement trader buying dips or selling rips this a very accurate approach.....it works on anything.. I've used it on stocks as well. And this site computes the base stretch for you for anything, which is cool.

I like NQ right now because its just way stronger than YM or ES.
On a YTD basis NQ is outpacing ES by 20 ES points and YM by 30 ES points.....important because if you're trading retracement dips NQ will give you a better probability, yeild, and ROI.

If you've ever really looked at the model day to day.....you can anticipate the close if there is stretch support.
Originally posted by Hunter

"You" asked about the how I determine the fade trade entry, and why and when I choose to execute. Go back and look at the candlesticks at the price levels I posted. Interpret the candlesticks extra carefully around the reversal target levels. The price rotations around these Stretch and Fibonaccis of the Stretch are expected to occur. Markets tend to trade in two directions.
Namaste


Assuming this is a response to my queries, this answer is every bit as cryptic as your other "explanations".

If you want to present yourself as some sort of zen master... offering pieces of the puzzle... but making the reader figure it out for themselves... then these types of posts are spot on.

If you honestly want to help others understand your system, then these cryptic messages are a waste of time.
I have asked in the past to give us thoughts in real time what levels and why. Neither the author nor a follower has ever given any realtime explanation. It seems most consider this to be mumbo jumbo as I rarely see any posts to these threads.
Thanks grednfer,
I didn't know how far the NQ markets were leading the ES and YM markets. Very knewl. Looks like the "Golden Cross" won't hold on a closing basis. Bad news has a way of laying the best hopes, lower.

ETM and rburns,
This week three www.mypivots.com members contacted me about the "(3, -1) fade the retracements" strategies. Maybe it's a style of trading that is easier to embrace for others. Two of the members are making actual trades. The other is satisfied with her paper trading results and moving forward with her trading account.

It's a trading technique that I learned without much help. It's not just me, other traders say that it does identify tradeable opportunities.
Namaste
Originally posted by Hunter
ETM and rburns,
This week three www.mypivots.com members contacted me about the "(3, -1) fade the retracements" strategies. Maybe it's a style of trading that is easier to embrace for others. Two of the members are making actual trades. The other is satisfied with her paper trading results and moving forward with her trading account.

It's a trading technique that I learned without much help. It's not just me, other traders say that it does identify tradeable opportunities.
Namaste


If you honestly want to help others understand your system, then these messages are a waste of time.

It's not a matter of embracing the style or not. It's about understanding what you are talking about. The way you present your trades are constantly lacking in rationale.
ETM,
Soon after the 30 January B session open, one of the other www.mypivots.com members contracted me with the same rational for his profits that applied the (3, -1) fade the retracement strategy.

Other traders are making money applying the "(3, -1) fade the retracement" strategy. Look at today's candlesticks basis the March $5 Dow (YMH2) futures short term time frames. Prices started rolling over after no new buyers were found at 03:06PDT (12683 high print) which was one minute after the 03:05PDT high at 12682. Prices started declining from 12683. Look at the candlesticks. Identify the rally failure as it happens. Look at the reversal patterns with respect to time.
Trading is a real time analysis risk event. Stay up late and watch how the market is printing price action. I'll say it again. Watching price action in real time is intra-day trading.

The previous settlement + 1.618% of the Stretch = 12670 = 12614 + 56 = 12670
12614 + 56 = 12670 represents the (-1) of the (3, -1) formula
12670 - 35 - 35- 35 = 12565 = (3) of (3, -1).

On a separate note, this "if you honestly" garbage you sprewed so casually is not necessary. Claiming to speak for ALL, as though you were the hall monitor chosen by the audience to be the oracle of truth, isn't your inventory to claim as your own. Just leave it alone. You've got better things to do than claim what is best for everyone. If the "(3, -1) fade the retracement" strategy doesn't work for you, that's ok.
Namaste
Originally posted by Hunter
Other traders are making money applying the "(3, -1) fade the retracement" strategy. Look at today's candlesticks basis the March $5 Dow (YMH2) futures short term time frames. Prices started rolling over after no new buyers were found at 03:06PDT (12683 high print) which was one minute after the 03:05PDT high at 12682. Prices started declining from 12683. Look at the candlesticks. Identify the rally failure as it happens. Look at the reversal patterns with respect to time.
Trading is a real time analysis risk event. Stay up late and watch how the market is printing price action. I'll say it again. Watching price action in real time is intra-day trading.

What does this have to do with your (3,-1) formula?

I looked at the candlesticks from 2:54 - 3:16. Price basically went sideways for 20+ minutes. What was it in the candlesticks that told you the top was in?

What reversal patterns with respect to time are you talking about? This is a new aspect.

The previous settlement + 1.618% of the Stretch = 12670 = 12614 + 56 = 12670
12614 + 56 = 12670 represents the (-1) of the (3, -1) formula
12670 - 35 - 35- 35 = 12565 = (3) of (3, -1).


According to my quotes, the previous close was 12601, which would've put close + 1.618 of stretch at 12657, which was 26 points from the high. Why did you use the 1.618 multiplier?

On a separate note, this "if you honestly" garbage you sprewed so casually is not necessary. Claiming to speak for ALL, as though you were the hall monitor chosen by the audience to be the oracle of truth, isn't your inventory to claim as your own. Just leave it alone. You've got better things to do than claim what is best for everyone.
I've asked about your honest intentions because your responses to specifics are frequently met with generalities of no value. Or you point out that others get it. Again, no value. It comes across as condescension.

If the "(3, -1) fade the retracement" strategy doesn't work for you, that's ok.
Namaste


Actually, I'm very interested in it. That's why I proposed you walking me through a few days of trades. You've been regularly posting your trades here, but very few seem to benefit from your posts. By having you walk me through some trades, I thought I might understand your system and be able to explain it to others on this forum.
etm,
What time frames did you review the high print? 1? ... 15 minute charts?
What intentions? Would I benefit staying up late at night with you, giving you a step by step analysis of candlestick by candlestick, time frame by time frame? Fyi, I've noticed that risk management can be improved by adding 0.618% and 0.382% of the Stretch to the fade levels. Example: Stretch = 35, ... 0.618% Stretch = 21 and 0.382% of the Stretch = 13. You'll find more reversals around these numbers than at exact Stretch and 1.618% of the Stretch fades.

At 3AM Pacific Time YMH2 printed a new high with no new buyers. That's a rally failure. If you weren't watching the one minute chart print the high, 12682, and then one minute later print 12683, with a higher open, a higher high, a lower low and a lower close with a >10% change in volume, i.e., bearish Maribozu.

Many times you, like others have asked where to fade, at the Stretch or a Fibonacci of the Stretch. Analyzing candlesticks, several time frames, in real time facilitates identifying the fade. How often do you get almost a 4.25% of the Stretch in the A session, to the B session open, whereafter fading the B session less the Stretch produced as 4.25% of the Stretch rally.

You ask where to fade. Why not fade at the first opportunity when prices were failing the A session high as they dropped through the Pivot Point? That was a good short. Why not fade at the B session open less the Stretch which price level also measured very closely to the above mentioned 4.25% of the Stretch from the top? Does this happen everyday? NO. Is there a Holy Grail? No.


Re your .... "What does this have to do with your (3,-1) formula? I looked at the candlesticks from 2:54 - 3:16. Price basically went sideways for 20+ minutes. What was it in the candlesticks that told you the top was in? What reversal patterns with respect to time are you talking about? This is a new aspect."

Intentions? Stop it.
There's nothing new about candlestick price pattern interpretation. It is, and always has been apart of trading. Watch prices in action, in real time. Nothing new here.