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ES Tuesday 2-28-12


I wanted to make sure the question I had at the end of the this post got posted so (before my aging mind wandered off and forgot to post my question to Bruce), I thought I better just open the thread

In terms of today's market. I will be focussing on 1377 area for signs of selling and ABC sell pattern in the 5 min bars.

I don't follow the Up volume - Down volume anymore, but I noticed yesterday it was mentioned that even price rose, there was more DVOL than UVOL. After an up day, a drift higher in the overnight can often be a search for stops and a prelude to early RTH profit-taking.

Weekly R2 = 1377.50 (RTH Only)

RE my studies of extensions of Monday ranges, the 618 extension up is 1381.75 (if printed RTH increases odds for a print at full extension 1388.50, especially if retracements attract buyers at MOnday's H (1370.75)

I am looking at this simple observation with renewed interest as I hope the analysis Bruce offers about the vwap and the standard deviations of VWAP might deliver clues as to low risk entries LONG if the 618 extension UP is printed but that event sparks an immediate retracement.

XXXXXXXXXXX
Now, Bruce,
thanks for your terrific videos.


I have questions about the IB generated volume profile (Black Background) you displayed in yesterday's video as "overnight."

>>>>what is the length of the bars used (shouldn't really matter, but I am curious)

AND

>>>>In the "chart parameters" setting, what time period are you capturing for 'overnight?'


my overnight chart parameters read

time period: "15hrs/5 min bars"

(as of 9:30am ET the volume profile histograms would be displaying a volume profile based on data back to 6:30pm the previous day.

and believe me, my IB volume profile for the overnight looked nothing like yours.
thanks bruce
30 min no lower low today. we do have a triple bottom
lol just noticed triple top at 71.5 also
Bruce this is a question for you,

As I understand Balance trader, the “big Money” bought 3 lots yesterday, they bought one lot this morning, they jacked the value up when they come out of lunch all indications they are going to go long all the way

A do I understand him correctly?

B does it have any weight on your next move?

Answer only when you have time please. Thanks
I never really followed any advance topic of that course. In my world we have a low volume area at 1369 and lower so I think they will need to fill that in some more BEFORE any significant rally/decline could happen ..if it even does.

My basic approach is to sell or buy in anticipation that higher volume prices get tested. This is one of the reasons I perform better in the morning to get those retests. Like the 1367 from today's trades and the 1360 yesterday.

This is the critical part : as the day wears on they start to accept these high volume nodes and move price away in search of new volume/value...This is why MOST of my trades outside of the first 90 minutes are smaller and usually much less accurate.

To get back to your question: No..it doesn't affect me in any way as I just like to know where the BELLS are....nobody really knows what the big or small lots are actually doing...at least that is my opinion
Originally posted by khamore1

Bruce this is a question for you,

As I understand Balance trader, the “big Money” bought 3 lots yesterday, they bought one lot this morning, they jacked the value up when they come out of lunch all indications they are going to go long all the way

A do I understand him correctly?

B does it have any weight on your next move?

Answer only when you have time please. Thanks

this is the low volume area I am watching ...we have two bell curves with peak volume at 67.50 and at 70.50....this low volume area in the middle needs to fill in to round out and create one bigger bell curve before a big move will happen....at least this is the theory...

So Khamore...there are some formations that aren't crystal clear and donot provide an edge...I think this is a difficult pattern and my bias is to keep selling higher expecting that 69 area to fill in some more.....
Click image for original size
hole
In regards to balance trader: I find the best trades in general will take place when they try to push price away from these bell curves and then run out of power in a low volume area...then we mean regress back to VALUE( the PVP or the POC).....


If we open right at peak volume like we did today then we need to wait for the push away first. I encorporate the ranges and low volume areas of the RTH and O/N to help initiate from expecting mean regression back to value....
if we just look at my chart posted you can see which area had more volume.....so in theory which area should be a stronger attractor? The one that has the most volume as more players thought that was fair value