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ES Tuesday 3-6-12


Kicking off Tuesday's trading topic with a question:

What would Bruce do?

It's an easy game and designed to make you think and become a better trader. Feel free to replace Bruce with KoolBlue or Monkey Meat or any other trader that you follow, understand or wish to emulate.

Before, at or after the market open and then at any time during the trading day ask yourself what that trader would do at this point. Post your trade (or non-trade) with the reason that you would have (or would not have) taken it. If you're learning and not posting an actual trade then say something like "I would have gone short here if I were trading real money because we hit up against the triples on..." etc.

If you see someone comment on a possible trade setup that you recognize then reply and confirm that you agree with the setup or what you think the setup should have been or why it is invalid.

Think of this as your midterm. You've been reading these topics for days, weeks, months or years. Now try it out and get feedback from your peers (hopefully).

Good luck everyone!
No Bruce by any means but will give my view of the forthcoming day.

If we open around where we are currently (53-54) I will look to 50.25 to buy (2 week back low)with a Delta signal.

1st target 54 O/N HVN, 2nd target yesterday's low. (58)

Will look to sell around (59) Yesterday's low and VAL from yesterday. All #'s line up with pitbull as well. Target 54

Good luck to all.
I`m showing a LVN at 48 with strong support at 47...looking for price to hold this zone and RTH open at or above 51.25 which I have as a 1.27 off 1377.25 highs to swing low 1356.75....next key area for support is Feb 3rd close ...below is a Gap Fill into Feb 2nd for a complete 2.618 (koolBlue)
2.618 I`m showing at 1323.58 RTH along with a rising 50 moving avg in this area
47 is also 50% of the month of Feb's range...natural spot for at least an attempt to bounce once all the shorts get loaded.

1347 is a monthly measure; the bigger the timeframe the bigger the leeway

regardless of anything else, you still need to see some sort of a pattern, like an abc on the 5min.

I don't remember the exact numbers, but gap fill much less likely when open below S2. S2 RTH ONLY = 1354
S3 = 1349.75 break above 1350 can hit 1354 (+/- 3 ticks)

chance of gap fill very low. but with the shorts loading here, some sort of scare and pop can unfold.

What would I do if I were Bruce?... I'd have historical volume profile, which I don't.
what a mess!!! s..t!
1343.00-43.25 as a 2.618 fib support area. Not confluence with my Double Stochastic Oversold line but has confluence with the LVN (1343.50) for a month view. I would get 10 cars moving on this area as a long position.
great stuff posted so far.I just bought the minus 5.5 and this is second try at longs today...lots of confluence with daily and weekly numbers down here ..what makes it tricky is that they aren't pushing down with any air pockets today until just now..46.25 is ultimate magnet price


38 - 39 is next area to try fades if we fail here
weekly r2 is 43 even FWIW
I am all out on 1345.25, not trading anymore for today.
Luke, er, I mean "Bruce,"
I am your proof-reeder LOL
S2
Originally posted by BruceM

great trade Horse...it's all cool APK..thanks for the recap..


final contract exit at 42.50.

thanks bruce! have a lot of respect for you and your thoughts for longs today added some conviction to my trade idea. when we have such a strong long term timeframe, it's easier to side with them, even on a day like today!

will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.