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ES Wednesday 3-7-12


some videos, BLAST and my basic plan..good luck today
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that was a cool area..lots of confluence up in that 53 - 54

last weeks low, weekly midrange and even R2 at 54.25

nice trade!

One of the many things I'm noticing about vwap and skews is that it seems that the late day moves and Overnight moves tend to happen in the direction of the skew..in this case vwap is below the PVP so the skew is down but only slightly...a work in progress
thx, I flattened@2.50 - HV and there was enough time that went by.. The EOD fade into a level 15-20min prior to the close is one of the more reliable scalp trades.. I'm trying to send a chart since there were additional clues but my jing is not loading..
i know i quote a lot of other peoples stuff, but i am not a professional like them and want to reference these ideas to credit them and not me, but john carter has a write up in his book to take the 3:30 close and look to fade the move 1 handle higher or lower from that close at 12:52. lots of subjective stuff and discretionary, but the concept is good and works well especially on YM when held into the 4:15 close.

i've traded it many times when it lines up with other levels im looking at especially keltner channels, and i find it produces 2 handles on average and you take a 2 handle stop.

Originally posted by Jedi

thx, I flattened@2.50 - HV and there was enough time that went by.. The EOD fade into a level 15-20min prior to the close is one of the more reliable scalp trades.. I'm trying to send a chart since there were additional clues but my jing is not loading..
got your 10 handle range Bruce!

Originally posted by BruceM

the challenge for me is that we know they have been having 10 -11 point ranges so if we add that to the lows we hit up against 55 - 56 at least. so fades are obviously agressive but we also don't ever know exactly how a range will unfold. we could catch the high and have it sell off into 1340 also - 42.

I'm assuming the high isn't here yet though
I can't get my jing to work but here is the reasoning:

54 did have lots of confluence there that gave me the level:
- It was where they previously sold it off from HV: you can see it on the 15min chart on 24hrs.
- It had 2 trend lines on the daily so the level was there

There was only 10min left in trading indicating closing position should be entering (just a guess) but the bigger positions were likely on the long side so more likely for longs than shorts exiting..

encouraging details:
Delta jumped 30k contracts on the ask but price only moved 2 pts indicating either short covering or absorption into a level and yet, it could not take it out. At the same place, Better volume indicating churn showing balanced high vol activity at the top that could not take out the level.

So the premise is there was no more juice to the upside to take out that level so I should'nt get blown out to the upside.. If it can't go up, it will fade some, and if I'm lucky.......
Great input today folks. It is really appreciated.