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ES Thursday 3-8-12


here is how my low volume numbers look on the down side. Above these I would be using 72 and 77 . Not shown. most interesting area is the BAND of low volume at 53.50 - 57.50.

We have a weekly open and weekly pivot at 1366. We have a daily r1 level at 56. Virgin VWAP at 69.25, 62.25, 50 and 44 ! Using March at least until noon
Click image for original size
numbers


Once we get the 8:30 reports out of the way we can dial it down and as RTH opens we will have the completed O/N range to verify our numbers.
Originally posted by Jedi

Originally posted by vasuki

jedi, but the problem with Cl is that it is very choppy and moves in every direction.


CL is almost always choppy but like anything else, its how you read it.. today, most of my profits came from 20 tick scalps - other days, I try to hold for more.. That's a whole different topic but the concepts are ALMOST exactly the same.. With CL, I rely less on vol and more on ATR as guideposts...


Don't get me wrong, I use vol actively, but ATR is important in CL due to its volatility where as I don't use ATR in ES
here, you see that traders are no longer shorting this and the downside risk is increased.. It will take new buying to move it up from here.. if it doesn't come, it means the move up was short covering .. As it stands, the move down will likely have more cuz its fading and traders are not hitting the bid..
Much will depend on what cash does which can first be seen on the tick but also the ADD/VOLD
thanks jedi appreciated.
besides the things shown and areas already mentioned, at the time I took that trade vwap and PVP where equal which means symetric..so look what happened when we went UP in price the same amount that we had already travelled below the VWAP...it was just about equal..even steven


then we had that nice PVP flip which made the skew to the down side


If I had to pick one way to trade at these bigger volume nodes it would be with volume divergences off the 5 minute..not perfect but a help
Nice trade Bruce! See, this is why I keep reading this forum.. Bruce's approach is completely different from mine and yet I'm always amazed how well it keeps working... We're often on the opposite side of the trade but both trades keeps on working..
Some of you are interested to know how I get my levels and its very simple: S/R levels on larger time frames, trend lines and levels that divide bell curves, which can also be seen on candles.. I included some charts to show you how I arrived at my levels and its really pretty simple..

http://screencast.com/t/wNilp0wcQ 1358

http://screencast.com/t/P9Qrjd5EjKC 1365

http://screencast.com/t/naCU6FlZ4sPp 1365

http://screencast.com/t/JI6UNmsbw7w Consolidation area/HV, why Bruce shorted

http://screencast.com/t/fIMuqzl1seu Anticipation goes from more upside to a potential short

Thanks Jedi.