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ES Thursday 3-15-12

i will by the rat at 138750..-4 pitbull at 87.
yes, but from 94.25 to 95
out all my position
92 is target on runner(triples)..stop on it at 96.25
i am starting to think john has the right move..that is to get out of all position at frist target..stop out runner 96.25..

john again nice trade..what i have seen u post u must have a high % trades right..keep up the good work

nice longs this morning NickP and duck!

Originally posted by NickP

flattened core of it at the lower end of that 90.5-92 area i mentioned before...runners aiming for the upper end

Originally posted by NickP

took the long as well although it was not the best place to initiate in my mind since it was the high volume area from yesterday but had decent confluence between pitbull, fib proj and o/n low vol area so took a shot at it...90.5-92 should be the magnet early on

VOLD can give you a lot more information than people think.. How could it have helped you today and yesterday?

Yesterday - It told us probabilities favored a "2 sided market", hence trades at both ends are equally probable to succeed.

Today - It gave us 2 pieces of tradable info:

1-The long in the morning was high probability. Price was selling off nicely but VOLD was holding. This told us there was a good probability of a reversal in the morning. Knowing that information, you look for a location to try a long where ever location your levels gives to have a reference point for your stop..
2-The better trade was to buy the dips all day. There were trades on both sides of the market everyday but today, buying the dips gave you better odds.. Knowing that, its just a matter of your chosen locations..

The VOLD + ADD comes in many different combinations. When placed into the right context, its a very powerful piece of information for probabilities..

Here's an example of context: The favored trade was to buy the dips all day EXCEPT the last 20min of the close.. The reason was because 1400 a major level was above us into the close and it didn't look like it was going to take it out prior to the close. The market has been up all day and should fade some with a ref point above at 1400.. 1397 was the HOD at the time so would be worth a short at the last 20min.. In this case, it didn't give much but was a reasonable set up to take.. Your stops could have been either 2 pts above or you add@1400 and stop out at 1402 and etc depending on your risk tolerance..
Further example of context: When ES came to IB, what was NQ doing? testing its LOD.. What was the pattern of VOLD? One sided to the long side.. What can this tell us? Probabilities favored the NQ to hold its low and ES to hold its IB.. Today, the VOLD was not smooth and consistent but the pattern was clearly one sided.. What that means is that when the ADD goes up and down, what's likely to happen is that when ADD goes down against VOLD, rangebound.. When ADD goes up with VOLD, price advance.. The other probability is that VOLD will turn and change its pattern but that was the smaller probability scenario..

Does this work 100%? of course not... but trading is all about trust........ in your set ups and the probabilities..