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ES Monday 3-19-2012


Monday's ES trading topic is a little bit different from the usual topic. Today you stand a chance to win a copy of Pit Bull based on what you say and what your peers think of your comments as measured by the net up-votes you get in this topic only.

There's a copy of the book to win for our established members and another copy for our lower-rep and less frequent participants. Read more about it here: Win a copy of Pit Bull by Martin Schwartz.

Good luck!

Jack Schwager: When did you turn from a loser to a winner?

Martin Schwartz: When I was able to separate my ego needs from making money. When I was able to accept being wrong. Before, admitting I was wrong was more upsetting than losing the money. I used to try to will things to happen. I figured it out, therefore it can't be wrong. When I became a winner, I said, "I figured it out, but if I'm wrong, I'm getting the hell out, because I want to save my money and go on to the next trade." By living the philosophy that my winners are always in front of me, it is not so painful to take a loss. If I make a mistake, so what!
a key level I will be looking for overnight and into Monday is the 1406 area as a potential short term top for a potential pb to last week peak vol 1392.5, possible 84 area previous supp and major tgt 1377 as previous high... The main reason for using 1406 as a key level is March contract settle 1405.75 and Contract high 1406.25.
Originally posted by Auole

Am I now competing for Mike S's book?

It's Martin S. and yes.
I already have the book and agree its a great book as well as a great story..

My general bias levels are 1390 and 1400 as boundaries which can be seen on the daily trend lines; above I lean long and below I lean short assuming other factors confirm. Inside I assume those are the boundaries.

However, unlike last year, I generally don't expect sustained big directional moves in either direction for trades unless there is a strong catalyst. The reason is going up we are at new highs having come from a distance below without good fundamentals. Below the market has been stair stepping up with lots of HV/ledges/consolidation areas all the way down within close proximity likely to serve as strong support I suspect at least the 1'st time down. Last year, there were strong fundamental reasons for the sell off and the volatility. This time, it looks more like an extended bounce from last year's lows rather than anything fundamental so I'm a bit leary. For me, general trade set ups will have about a 5-7 pt max target given the ATR of or ES recently with some profit taking around 2-3pts..

Good luck tomorrow!


Here's my Monkey Map of potential S/R levels using a 30min chart coming into Monday's trading. The gray background is non-RTH trading (After Hours) with the Blue background showing RTH trading on an ES continuous contract. The right vertical Light Blue lines represent 20 "rolling" days of Volume Profile. More to the point, the Red lines are potential significant PASR levels, with Magenta representing semi-significant levels. As a background "helper", the Weekly Pivots are the White dashed lines. Also, on this chart, I've got a thick Yellow line which is a Fib Cluster (give or take a point). Hope this is helpful to folks as a "map" for trading!

Click image for original size
es 30m sr for 31912


ps. Hey DT, when ya gonna offer Toby Crabel's book for a PRIZE?
When I learned about inside bars and low range bars there was no real impact from the overnight sessions on our markets. Things are different today but I was also taught that quite often low range bars are followed by OVB's as volatility contractions are followed by expansions.

Just thought I'd point it out that we are forming an OVB to the downside not only on the day session extremes from Friday but also using the overnight extremes from that session as well.

There are usually key low volatility areas that form intraday that help define the low volatility of a daily bar. I mentioned the .75 point range on Friday afternoon at 98.25 - 99 on the 30 minute time frame . That to me is the critical area as we approach trade in todays RTH session .
Originally posted by Big Mike

Stop set 3.5 points, it is strictly a momentum play.


Couldn't make it, stopped out -3.5
All the Informations are on the chart.
Happy Trading
We have the current O/N low at 93.50, a daily S2 at 93.50 and a LVN at 93.50. We also have a naked VWAP at 93 so that is a key area to me.

The Overnight high goes well with R2 today at 1402.75 another key zone. I'll be avoiding trades at that 98 - 99 area I mentioned earlier as that is really for the breakout traders. The breakout traders will use smaller, low volatility intraday bars to try and get a jump on the NR7 day extreme breakout but that area is also the PVP from Fridays trade. IMHO it is better to use that as a magnet on any fades from higher or lower prices.

I have another LVN at 90.25 and Thursdays RTH low goes well with the weekly pivot at 1386.25.

Above we can use those old contract highs that Chrisp mentioned and the daily s3 at 1407.50 for confluence. The weekly R1 is up at 1312.25! Hope all have a great day.
sorry the trade didn't work out Mike but I appreciate you taking ownership of that trade to the forum. Too many come on forums and make market calls and beat their chest when they are correct and when they are wrong we hear nothing of it. So lots of respect I have for you in stepping up to that!
Originally posted by Big Mike

Originally posted by Big Mike

Stop set 3.5 points, it is strictly a momentum play.


Couldn't make it, stopped out -3.5
Originally posted by BruceM

sorry the trade didn't work out Mike but I appreciate you taking ownership of that trade to the forum. Too many come on forums and make market calls and beat their chest when they are correct and when they are wrong we hear nothing of it. So lots of respect I have for you in stepping up to that!
Originally posted by Big Mike

Originally posted by Big Mike

Stop set 3.5 points, it is strictly a momentum play.


Couldn't make it, stopped out -3.5



Stuck with my plan, so it's all good. Small pain for bigger gains is all I'm trying to do.

Good luck to all.
Congratulations to Big Mike and goatwig who each win a copy of Pit Bull. Private Message me your address and I'll send those to you.

(Note: BruceM got more votes than Big Mike but he already has this book. Bruce, if you want a different book let me know and we'll get it for you.)