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ES Tuesday 4-10-12


The one minute just confirmed the spike in volume in the 30 minute wasn't buyer optimisim but rather a chance to unload trapped longs. Which created a chance to trap more longs. Having said that I might buy the close this evening and sell at the open.

What do you see?
a quick high stress ramble just to make some useful contribution today:
No video below? Try this link: diverge.swf






added at 65.75...a noon close under 65 is a warning for me..target is revised down to 68.75..no new $tick lows yet but it doesn't mean that the royal flush won't happen..

ok to take trades like this as long as u know they are aggressive..and of course it is ok to take losers!
just bailed for the loser at 64.75..new $tick lows
minus 1500 $tick and air above so starting again at 61 even...targeting air fill and going lite.
they tagged both of Pauls 1.62 and 2.0 extension of monday
I have a hard stop at 57 as that is very close to a low volume/vwap combination from 3-08 trade and if the sellers are on a mission then that is what they want next

damn ..trading is hard!

if I can get to that 64 area then I will take all off except one contract for the 67 air pocket. This is not a big package and never is outside of the first 90 minutes. For good reason !!
I can't believe this sell-off. it's a one way ticket to palookaville.

one potential saving price level is the 161.8 extension down of Monday's range, which is MOnday's range times 1.618, subtracted from Monday's Low (this would be labeled 2.618 on a fib tool).

that comes in today at 1357.88

a nice hammer in the 5 minute bar at this level (and it's lunchtime) should produce a bounce.
hope so Paul as I am managing this now and pulled my hard stop out..probably a mistake but we'll see
im finally looking for longs down here, unfortunately didn't get in on the short side today and just watching it drop over 10 handles off the open to get long, but pulled the timeframe back and wanted to wait for the 15 minute chart to stop timeframing lower to get in once we dropped below 60. luckily it never setup anything on the 5 minute chart very strong.

working in here with stops at new lows, trying to get 2-3 handles of risk, targeting 67 area

good luck longs!
well, that was sthg...got stopped twice, first on my small long and then from the 65.5 level that i thought was gonna produce a small bounce (2 pt stop on both)...now long from 58.5 and 57.5 and unloading stuf here at 60.5 on the air fill (and weekly low from the week of 3/12)

the area for the long came from this chart below, initial projection after the friday's job data...i also had a vpoc from 3/8 (56.75 was the peak volume from that day)

sorry i did not update earlier but i don't have bruce's ability to post, trade and make money; i can usually manage 2 out of the three !
No I don't post everyday anymore. yesterday I got lured in by JDscotts attack on Monkey meat. Participation had dried up but perhaps it will return with an increase in volatility.