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Polynomial regression bands movement on live chart


I have a question for anyone using Polynomial bands, in my backtesting I used a touch of the band as a signal to fade with a 2 pt stop...it was impressive results. BUT, I took a signal live when price touched band at 1362.50 and within 2 min the band expanded to 1363.75 and from when I entered the trade it looked like it had never touched 2 min prior?

So backtesting in this way looks iffy. I always wondered about seeing a Polynomial band chart and seeing these perfect turns, but if the chart self adjusts to the price movement AFTERtheFACT, then just a touch of band can not be a signal.

How do others use this Band? I still see how I can use it with my other levels, but was excited about my backtesting until I watched the adjustment live.
daddywolf,
I don't use them because I don't use that software,

but since the historical testing you did was so impressive,

why not wait until the completion of the real-time bar before taking the signal.

It sounds like you were were willing to take the signal real-time, but it also sounds like the price tag of the band occurred intra-bar...and then, since the bar was not complete, apparently the range of the bar increased, pushing the band further away...

can't you wait for the completion of the bar and accept that as a valid signal (that's what you were doing in your historical lookback, none of those bars were changing real time).

All your signals were "as of completion of the bar."
thanks for the reply Paul, a closed bar still does not solve it, I am using 1 min bars and as the movement goes the bands expands so what you see after the fact is a expantion that fits the price movement, but at the point of live action the band is at one level, but unless it turns at that time, it will expand as its pushed up and it would look like you even took a trade in the middle of the range.

I will just mix this in with my main support and resistant levels I look at and use as a 2nd confirmation. But was looking at this like it could be a single signal indicator, which looking at it working live is not realistic. At least not to me, Happy to hear how others are using this .