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Been "trading" three years...


Hi Everyone! :-)
been trading for three years E-minis (YM, NQ).
Started with sim, then live, then sim again, then live and so on.
Good news is, I didnt loose a lot of money.
I studied lots of books about trading psychology, analyses, positive thinking, etc.
I consider myself as a very disciplined and positive person.
But I noticed something and I would like to know your opinion.

Every of my strategies worked for maximum one or two months. I always adapted the volatility or current "mood" of market, but it didn´t help.
But after few weeks, I always ended up on B/E or worse.

I discovered that some of my internet friends on forum, who claimed to be full time traders, have got trading web pages, when they offer mentoring to trade and selling trading books and strategies.
It seems that there are just two groups of traders:
1) guys who make money by selling books and "know hows" and do not trade.
2) guys who loose money by trying to trade by those books and know hows.

It is quite dissapointing not to make any money after three years of keen studying. So my final question is:

Is there around the world a guy, who makes money of trading from home?
Because I think I tried everything (trend line breaks, moving averages, triangles, flags, etc.) and nothing worked...

Bless you, Sanderson
Originally posted by Sanderson

Big Mike,
thanks for your observation about my chart, but I got more curious about one of your lines:

"I would suggest, losing the trend lines and just let what price is doing "wash over" you until reading price action comes to you."

After how many years (or months, if You got lucky-) ) did it come to You?

S.


It hit me after a couple of months, however I did not believe it or trust it.

Around 30 months in after experiences similar to yours is when the light fully came on.

Trade what you see and trust yourself,
good luck.
Sanderson, you need know have some kind of expectation of an outcome for your trade. Unless you lease/own a seat then to pay the freight on these trades isn't easy. Paying retail your win rate will have to be well over %50, especially in YM. Are you risking more than 1% on a trade, or at least making sure your W:L is over 60% (and monitor it on ongoing basis)?

As a couple traders have implied, trading the edges makes more sense; it's less comfortable, but you know when you are wrong. You can try to catch some of the longer running trades by being there for b/o's. A W/L of 2:1 is a worthy goal, and a day when you catch 5 or 10 handles can make up for a lot.

Sorry, it isn't easy. Big Mike's forum and others can be good resources (watch their webinars); same with FT71 (and pay a nominal donation for the extra information). For me a 3 min chart doesn't need lines and arrows. You are using for entry from another perspective. I like MP a lot, but that alone won't get you over the top.

Probably, the strategy part will help you most of all. There are as many ways to trade as you could think of in long time.

Good Luck
Tomasito
You are right about the freight.
I do about 3 trades per day 16 days per month so fees are about 25% of all profit...
I risk about 0,6%/trade (maybe that´s why I did not loose much money).
My W/L is usually about 40% with RRR 1,5, which is not good.
I´ll check the forums about the strategies.
Bye for now...
Sanderson
Big Mike

"Around 30 months in after experiences similar to yours is when the light fully came on."

Mike, how do I recognize, that the light comes on? Because I start to have a profil every month or somehow else?

S.
Originally posted by Sanderson

Big Mike

"Around 30 months in after experiences similar to yours is when the light fully came on."

Mike, how do I recognize, that the light comes on? Because I start to have a profil every month or somehow else?

S.


For me it was when I said to myself "based on X, Y is going to happen" it was very often correct.

Then it's a matter of defining your stop and target. All my reads are based on 30m timeframe.
HI,
today again B/E on NQ, just to cover the broker fees...
I was just thinking, that if I had studied the last three years a distance school, I would have have already a degree.
Now, after three years, it is just a frustration, that is all I have
It looks to me, that a man simply can not defeat markets, or take a reasonable amount of money every month.
I tried to make at least 500 US on NQ month/contract, but I never did.
S.
Originally posted by Sanderson

HI,
today again B/E on NQ, just to cover the broker fees...
I was just thinking, that if I had studied the last three years a distance school, I would have have already a degree.
Now, after three years, it is just a frustration, that is all I have
It looks to me, that a man simply can not defeat markets, or take a reasonable amount of money every month.
I tried to make at least 500 US on NQ month/contract, but I never did.
S.


Did you do something different or trade the same way you have been?

One of the most important things to realize is, almost all the things you learn about TA is based on "after fact" observations. People look at charts and see trade entries they should of taken(or show a profit) they then apply those entries real-time. They never realize, those entries are almost impossible to identify when they are actually happening.

You might have spent 3 years studying but you are really only repeating the same lessons over and over. Studying the same thing over and over is not the same as studying different subjects sequentially.

If you are not getting the results you want: STOP TRADING until you figure it all out. I can tell you from personal experience, it takes longer than 3 years, only because of all the bad, misleading and down right false information you have to wade thru until you figure it out.
Originally posted by Sanderson


I do not share much your enthusiasm for backtesting.


Fine, I have a few questions for you then:

- what is your personal experience with backtesting?
- what are your concerns with backtesting?
- do you believe a trading method / system which will work in the future would not work on past data?
- what can you rely on, outside of backtesting, to assess the value of any trading method / system / rule / etc ?
Originally posted by Sanderson

HI,
today again B/E on NQ, just to cover the broker fees...
I was just thinking, that if I had studied the last three years a distance school, I would have have already a degree.
Now, after three years, it is just a frustration, that is all I have
It looks to me, that a man simply can not defeat markets, or take a reasonable amount of money every month.
I tried to make at least 500 US on NQ month/contract, but I never did.
S.

Like any performance based activity, it can't be for the $$ alone but you have to have love for the game.. If you do, come into a skype rm with me and I will feed you the trades for a week trading 1-2 cars on ES.. If you're willing to trade CL, even better.. I'd be very surprised if you don't make $500.00.. You will not find anyone bold enough to offer this anywhere.. Once you learn how the market works, its only the beginning and you're in for an inner journey where even many OG's can't hang.. If you can, it aint nuttin but a G thang!!!

BeyondMP

"Studying the same thing over and over is not the same as studying different subjects sequentially."

Sequentially- how should I understand that please?

S.
Originally posted by Sanderson

BeyondMP:

"What, in your opinion, is the single most important factor needed for a trade to be successful?"

I had to think about this question the whole day to be honest. I figured out lots of answers - I do not know if this is what you expected me to write, but I would answer your question this way.

For a trade to be successful is important to follow the rules of the strategy. It depends of trader´s expectations - for one trader a small profit is enough so he takes few bucks and the trade is successful. Another trader aims higher and therefore he can end up on SL or B/E without the success. So I would say the most important factor is expectation.

Sorry if I am completely wrong with the answer:-)

Sanderson


I won't judge your answer. However, I will offer mine.

I will quote a nearly 100 year old book, since I think Richard D. Wycoff said it best in "The Day Trader's Bible" originally published in 1919. By the way, when you read his book you find out that all the books about trading that follow his, simply, repeat the same concepts he put forth(not the method but the concepts).

He defined a Day Trader: "as one who follows the immediate trend. This means that he pursues the line of least resistance. He goes with the market--he does not buck it."

My answer is-

The market must move in the direction of your trade for it to be successful, plain and simple.

Most TA traders act, as if, TA is the cause of market movement. TA is just a reporting method, not the cause. So, to elevate your trading from just hope for movement, you need to understand the forces that move your particular market.

This is not as difficult as it might seem. I will give you a simple example from the current market. Yesterday, we saw major movement after the Fed's statement. Observers of the indices know the pattern of movement after a major Fed announcement. There is always a 3 pulse move, the direction of the first move(up-yesterday) is the direction of the third pulse. So, you saw the first move up, waited for the pullback, then entered your trade. It didn't matter what method of trading you were using, the results would have been the same, a move up.

Again, this is a very simple example. However, there are identifiable "causes" that can be observed and used in intraday index trading. And, remember, watch the market movement after you enter, let it tell you what to do, not your TA. Or, some preconceived action that may or may not be the correct one.