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ES Thursday 9-13-12


Today is Fed Day and also Rollover Day. Here is a chart from last Fed Day on 1/August/2012. Announcement was at 2:15pm that day. Today it will be at 12:30pm.

Thanks for kicking us off today DT. Numbers I am looking at are:

1432.50 - 1433.50 - still the critical support zone they have been buying

1436- 1437 ***** critical prices and a likely magnet so far but it is still early before the 8:30 report..My IB data messed up yesterday and I have confirmed that the 4pm close volume was at 1436...volume flowing into that same area in the O/N session. I think this area is best used as a magnet and not the best place to initiate trade from

1439.75 is last 15 minute bar volume, near yesterdays highs and the current On high

above here I like the 1444 - 1446 zone. this to me is the split level between a split of the weekly R1 which is 1453.25 and the 1439 high of last week. Nick mentioned this area yesterday but it may have been for a different reason.

On Rollover I find that most of us are still confused so we usually do not trend early but this also being a fed announcement could mess up that theory. I will be trading September and then roll over after noon time .
I'm gonna be more cautious today if the Overnight range stays inside yesterdays day session. Just not sure if the consolidation is going to break ahead of the fed announcement or just more consolidation till then.

Watch the first 30 minutes volume for clues to that. We don't want be caught fading against those who MAY be front running the 12:30 news.
i think we might move a bit in the first hour or so and then chill till the announcement comes at 12.30...

Originally posted by BruceM

I'm gonna be more cautious today if the Overnight range stays inside yesterdays day session. Just not sure if the consolidation is going to break ahead of the fed announcement or just more consolidation till then.

Watch the first 30 minutes volume for clues to that. We don't want be caught fading against those who MAY be front running the 12:30 news.
biggest volume sits at 37.25 in day session..so expecting a test back up from below
Could someone give me a guideline for the latest time I can trade the old contract. I day trade the e-mini. My bars are based on volume, not time. So my Dec. chart looks dramatically different from my Sept. chart. I think I need an hour or so until the new contract has enough trade history to give me a decent picture to trade off of.

What I'm really asking: Are there any risks trading the old contract on rollover day?
I have found no risks but volume tends to drop off after about 11 - 12 a.m. in September



trying the longs down in the 35 price and the 33 if needed to try and go get that 37
so just like yesterday they may come back to the peak volume of the first 30 minutes at 35.75 but hopefully they will go get that first minute of volume at 37 first...volume way off again which IMPLIES mean reversion trades



oopps..too late ..our 37 just filled
trying to hold one for the volume at 39.75 but why shouldn't they just jerk it around in here still ? only thing these runners have going for it is that all those one minute bars have successive POC's moving higher..hopefully that really is aggressive buyers
only have one runner with stop at 35.50...just to be clear...this is just luck if they go for the 39.75 before the 35.75 retest I think
I will be surprised if they don't go test that 37.50 volume again..that is peak volume from the first 30 minutes of trade and also where sellers have entered on the one minute...

nuff said till after the news or 39.75 prints
Thanks for the update ETM! Appreciate the follow-up.