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ES 10-16-12


Weekly R1 not mentioned is 1443.50 and another Vpoc up near 1448.50 - 1450 just in case they keep pushing..prefer the 1439 area as a magnet first though.. ..1437 - 1439 is also first critical support point
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on the 42.25 short but not sure we won't end up trying again up above the O/N high....39.50 is target ..if we sell above the On hogh then 42.50 is first target\
45.50 is my next short spot after first loss
always interesting when we are at the edge of a bell curve..will they go for that volume at 48 area or back down into the 39 volume..so far us sellers are working hard for nothing
price tagged yesterday's Close plus 10, you might have a better shot at retracement now.
added at 46..targeting 44 first that is where buyers will defend if they show up....LVN there...volume seems to be slowing as we approach that volume node above but sometimes they do the big push to shake us out and that implies the test of 48.50 so keeping all small up here

hoping that the buyers are growing tired in front of that big buldge above
and the 45.5 area was the 61.8 extension of yesterday's rth range...so according to paul's findings there is an 80% chance that we hit the ful extension at 51 (i hope this one is part of the 20% group lol)

short from 46 and covered some at 44.5 and don't like the prospects for the ones left so tightening stop

i have 47.25-47.5 and the 48.5-50 area above, that matches bruce's #

ib close approaching and it feels they will want to break it higher

i think big mike mentioned that on unfilled gap days a break of the ib in the direction of the gap usually is good for a couple of pts after the break (correct me big mike if i am wron, if it was u of course who mentioned this)
those buyers stepped in at 1445 ..I got stopped at 46.25..trying one last time at 46.75 ..that 45 is my first target...lets see if anyone is interested in buying an hour high in front of all that volume above
massive dvg now on a cum delta basis (5m bars)



Originally posted by NickP

massive dvg now on a cum delta basis (5m bars)
Originally posted by NickP
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i think big mike mentioned that on unfilled gap days a break of the ib in the direction of the gap usually is good for a couple of pts after the break (correct me big mike if i am wron, if it was u of course who mentioned this)


I don't think it was me, not too much of a gap watcher. Took a small scalp long @ 8:43. Will take a break of "C" long if it closes outside of IB or short if it fails, if I'm still around, have a tennis engagement for 10:30 CT.

Good luck to all.
NICKP,

On a day like Tuesday (Bear trap and squeeze) I think the VWAP for the day is the critical factor. On Tuesday, every time the VWAP was tested, buyers emerged (bears with short positions established over the prior 3 trade days who wanted to exit?).


Maybe some day I will write code to get the RTH intraday print of a Monday extension up .618 and see whether VWAP is critical support for an extension to full extension on that same day. I know I used to use the H of the previous day as important support for a shot at full extension once the 618 extension had been printed. maybe the vwap is more important.