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ES 10-16-12


Weekly R1 not mentioned is 1443.50 and another Vpoc up near 1448.50 - 1450 just in case they keep pushing..prefer the 1439 area as a magnet first though.. ..1437 - 1439 is also first critical support point
No video below? Try this link: tues_10-16.swf






i could swear it was u...in any case, will try to look for that commentary, but it is more or less what i mentioned...i don't trade break of the ib actively but i watch those when there was a gap left unfilled...that's all

Originally posted by Big Mike

Originally posted by NickP
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i think big mike mentioned that on unfilled gap days a break of the ib in the direction of the gap usually is good for a couple of pts after the break (correct me big mike if i am wron, if it was u of course who mentioned this)


I don't think it was me, not too much of a gap watcher. Took a small scalp long @ 8:43. Will take a break of "C" long if it closes outside of IB or short if it fails, if I'm still around, have a tennis engagement for 10:30 CT.

Good luck to all.
Originally posted by NickP

i could swear it was u...in any case, will try to look for that commentary, but it is more or less what i mentioned...i don't trade break of the ib actively but i watch those when there was a gap left unfilled...that's all


Cool, now that you mention it I may have started watching it relative to gaps and have gradual enhanced the approach.
Looks like it may break back down. My target will be 13443 YM. Single print, spike of candle closing @ 7:00
this was third try today and here is a quickie for those interested... finally that 44..that is midpoint of today too so all is tightened and holding only two in case they go for the 41.75 and even 39.50 still


this seems like it will be a challenge and I'd like to see them spend some time under the O/N high...see how it is all the same...? The LVn, the midpint, the O/N high...all the same price!!
No video below? Try this link: fade_two.swf






the one chart i use to measure some sort of expectations for my trades is the ym 12 sec chart (yes, i trade es but actively watch that chart since a 12 sec es chart is a jagged mess due to the 0.25 tick nature)

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1350399117202.png

the orange line is an 89 period sma and u can see how we stayed above it, testing it several times but never breaking it convincingly, up until a moment ago...so my shorts had no hope of targeting more than 1.5-2 pts or having runners succeed while above that orange line...i still take the trades but just curb my hopes for the trade and use tight stops, that's all...ideally while above that line all trades should be longs and vice versa, but that does not apply for mean reversion traders (like bruce, myself and many others on this site)...so from the mean reversion angle, one can take shorts above the orange line still (and longs below), but try to flatten some of the position (if not most of it) as we test the line from above and then leave runners in the event that there is a convincing break like the one we just had

hope it helps on the risk mgmt side at least
Yo, NickP
Thanks for the chart.

One thing about those Monday fib extensions...Unfortunately, there is no defined "window of time" that the full extension of Monday's range occurs (just high odds (80%) that once up .618 of Monday's range is printed, full extension of Monday's range will occur before the next Monday).

That means that short-term analysis is still paramount.

If price retraces and undercuts 50% of Monday's RTH range, UGH, makes a full extension difficult.

IMHO, VWAP (starting at today's RTH) is most important support zone. right now about 1444.50-1444.75 area

Today is/was a bear trap with a squeeze.

This is just chart-read RE bear trap...
MOve above Thursday's 9:30 to 4:00 ES High snapped the bear trap.

1439.25 is the High of Thursday 10-11-12. (The chart I am using is composed of cash session ES prices (runs 9:30am to 4:00pm ET)
IB broke out long (YM), target too small for my liking, done for the day.

Good luck all.
just don't think they are done with that 45 yet...so while many are buying low I'm still trying sells from higher...I wish they would get that damn 48.50 test out of the way if that is the plan but either way I am just gonna pick at the short side up here especially if they run out the current highs..

volume is still drying up as we move away from that 1445 now so that usually goes well with mean reversion..so right now we are seeing volume pick up AT 1445 but then it is drying up as we move away higher..
thx for the clarification

Originally posted by PAUL9

Yo, NickP
Thanks for the chart.

One thing about those Monday fib extensions...Unfortunately, there is no defined "window of time" that the full extension of Monday's range occurs (just high odds (80%) that once up .618 of Monday's range is printed, full extension of Monday's range will occur before the next Monday).

That means that short-term analysis is still paramount.

If price retraces and undercuts 50% of Monday's RTH range, UGH, makes a full extension difficult.

IMHO, VWAP (starting at today's RTH) is most important support zone. right now about 1444.50-1444.75 area

Today is/was a bear trap with a squeeze.

This is just chart-read RE bear trap...
MOve above Thursday's 9:30 to 4:00 ES High snapped the bear trap.

1439.25 is the High of Thursday 10-11-12. (The chart I am using is composed of cash session ES prices (runs 9:30am to 4:00pm ET)
starting small shorts 48....we all know what is above..I will short as high at 1450 but then I will need to rethink the lunchtime plan

targeting 45.25
NICKP,

On a day like Tuesday (Bear trap and squeeze) I think the VWAP for the day is the critical factor. On Tuesday, every time the VWAP was tested, buyers emerged (bears with short positions established over the prior 3 trade days who wanted to exit?).


Maybe some day I will write code to get the RTH intraday print of a Monday extension up .618 and see whether VWAP is critical support for an extension to full extension on that same day. I know I used to use the H of the previous day as important support for a shot at full extension once the 618 extension had been printed. maybe the vwap is more important.