ES 10-18-12

Hoping to get a video up later but for now I see it like this:

Critical zone is 53.75 - 55.75 and this is much better as a magnet but if you see it go up into there and you get a nice volume divergence then it's ok to short...Last weeks RTH high is at 53.50 so it is no surprise at that battle....look at how that 53.75 played out in O/N session too.

Va Low is right there from yesterday also.

My preference is to have market drop down in the 48.50 - 50.50 zone...50.50 was that HUGH volume on open print from yesterday and 48.50 is yesterdays lows...lots of volume to support price under there..


next long zone is down in the 45 - 46 zone as per yesterdays video ramblings...there is a low volume area from yesterday at 52.50 but I prefer to see them push it lower then that because we didn't see much back and forth trade in yesterdays session below that price.

Normally I like to see back and forth trade battle and then price pushes away to leave the low volume behind...we didn't have too much of that only about 30 minutes worth of trade before we broke away and up and formed that lvn at 52.50..I just don't like that one

The 8:30 report volume come is at 1455.75 so that goes well with our magnet zone mentioned above

so agressive traders can sell the 53.75 - 55.75 but I am hoping we can get some long trades on from lower prices in 48.50 - 50.50 zone


above yesterdays highs we have the 59.50 - 60.50 and then 62.75 - 63.75

Hope all knock it outta the park today..single print in On as I type at 53.50.......last weeks highs again !!

no trades yet for me..I prefer to see the market open and then drop down or up to a number I am interested in....nothing like that happened today...waiting for 10 a.m report...

what a snoozefest thus far, ping pong between the lvn at 52 and bruce's 53.75-55.75 area

hope we get some action with the 10am news

lol we almost wrote the same thing at the same time Bruce !

yeah Nick..terrible stuff..I'm going to wait until we break outside one of the O/N ranges..till then this is all high risk..

the volume from the O/N is at 1454....can we all remember 1453.75 from yesterday...LOL..! Not much is changing yet !!

and we just saw volume come in at 55.5 after the 10am news so it seems that 53.75-55.75 is growing ever more important so it will be a nice magnet one way or the other ...so tough to trade while in there

Bruce, when you say volume from the overnight do you mean the VPOC of the overnight, when do you start you VP calc?

NICKP,
What do you have for overnight VPOC?
I have 1455.50 as overnight VPOC (that's starting from begin of overnight session at 4:30pm yesterday afternoon.

yep, my volume poc is 55.5 or the o/n session

Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce, when you say volume from the overnight do you mean the VPOC of the overnight, when do you start you VP calc?

NICKP,
What do you have for overnight VPOC?
I have 1455.50 as overnight VPOC (that's starting from begin of overnight session at 4:30pm yesterday afternoon.

Paul...I look at both...the overall volume node - the vpoc but also I look at the one minute spikes to see exactly where the bigger traders have initiated trade from...


usually the one minute spikes will have end up being the vpoc node but there are other areas where big volume comes in and it doesn't show up as VPOC.....then I see how all that relates to the day session area ...does my answer make sense ?

Originally posted by PAUL9

Bruce, when you say volume from the overnight do you mean the VPOC of the overnight, when do you start you VP calc?

NICKP,
What do you have for overnight VPOC?
I have 1455.50 as overnight VPOC (that's starting from begin of overnight session at 4:30pm yesterday afternoon.

you know my experience with the VP is minimal, but the highest "aggregate" volume at price over a given period of time (the overnight) certainly does not have to be in line with an extreme spike at a specific price level.

I'll re-read

At this point, though, with the numerous headbumps in the overnight, I couldn't rule out an RTH move up to a jab above yesterday's high (57.75 area)

Potential for "exit short" buy stops right above the overnight high of 58.50 and then if option market makers have any sway, immediate reversal (after writing as many calls as they can).

I plead ignorance.

This is OpEx week.

I certainly don't have anything glaring back at me from the charts and it might be time for me to stop trying to 'guess' and start doing something else today. (No handle at all on the PA today, but if there is a small range day today, tomorrow could be a real slamma-jama.

that is correct Paul...the volume spike always comes first and then as traders notice that volume they jerk price back and forth right around the volume spike but not always EXACTLY at the specific volume spike.....so then we have the vpocs form where they do.....

Vpoc is probably more accurate but often we can see volume spikes that other traders haven't noticed yet and no time has been spent around those spikes yet...hence no VPOCs are there...so we eon't to know those as they tell us where big traders did something in the market and they may do something there again when we trade back to them..

We don't often just blow through the individual volume spikes but we can blow through VPOC's !! This is a critical observation..

at 4:45 a.m we had a volume spike at 1456....and look how that has played out so far..at 8:30 we had the one up there too..so we know somebody is using that with bigger money than we have..

Originally posted by PAUL9

you know my experience with the VP is minimal, but the highest "aggregate" volume at price over a given period of time (the overnight) certainly does not have to be in line with an extreme spike at a specific price level.

I'll re-read

At this point, though, with the numerous headbumps in the overnight, I couldn't rule out an RTH move up to a jab above yesterday's high (57.75 area)

Potential for "exit short" buy stops right above the overnight high of 58.50 and then if option market makers have any sway, immediate reversal (after writing as many calls as they can).

I plead ignorance.

This is OpEx week.

I certainly don't have anything glaring back at me from the charts and it might be time for me to stop trying to 'guess' and start doing something else today. (No handle at all on the PA today, but if there is a small range day today, tomorrow could be a real slamma-jama.

enjoy your time off bruce