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ES 1/11/13


gm, numbers i am looking at this am

above: 68, 71.5 (on high), 73.5-74.5, 76.75-78

below: 61.25-63.5 (poc, vpoc, vah and lvn all in that range), 56, 49-50, 44-46

as it stands, we are currently above value so if we were to test that 61.25-63.25 from above and reject it then my higher targets are likely....

if we fail at that area then the mid 50s area is likely to be visited again, with and outside chance of getting back to the low 50s

good luck
trying to get only to 64.25 first but this is S-L-O-W !Volume is slowing on this decline now..hour range is complete in 7 minutes

I don't want to make knucklehead trades on a friday !! so i am being agressive on entries but not in the total number of contracts traded per try at the long side

I thought the O/N low would get retested and a LVN is right there at 64.25..hasn't happened yet

so far it look slike I am the only buyer
some volume building at 62.75...don't like those matching lows so watching closely down here now...hour is up..a very lonely trade
with those mathcing lows I took off my 63.25's just in case..I want less working and would rather have on contracts from lower prices
i was with you from 62.75 but took it off after that volume started to build down there...might have been premature, but not risking here...
4 matching lows at the hour low is not a good thing for the long side from a probability viewpoint...I'm not saying we can't rally from here but odds favor those to be revisited...so I am not holding any size and covering on any pops in price more quickly than normal

target of 64.25 is met but not expecting much from here
premature indeed...but i somehow feel good abt it anyway...thought odds did not favor the trade anymore

Originally posted by NickP

i was with you from 62.75 but took it off after that volume started to build down there...might have been premature, but not risking here...
funny u said that...i was typing the same thing at the same moment...check the times of your post and mine ! great minds ...

Originally posted by BruceM

4 matching lows at the hour low is not a good thing for the long side from a probability viewpoint...I'm not saying we can't rally from here but odds favor those to be revisited...so I am not holding any size and covering on any pops in price more quickly than normal

target of 64.25 is met but not expecting much from here
just went flat...a good trade but I think this one falls into the "lucky" category....those lows are troubling me too much
cool Nick it seems like a better idea is to sell off the On low if we can find that short trade right in this LVN area....very obvious that they are trying to battle it out with last weeks highs.no coicidence that these other numbers fall where they do.

any failed short will eventually go back to that 66.50 high volumne price so we have some tight risk near the O/N low short idea
that was also 50% back...normally I'd say that we have no edge when we hit the 50% mark of the IB and no IB range has run yet but seeing that low gives us some hope that it will be the LOW that breaks first
hope it works out for u Bruce...i am out rest of the pm

thanks for all the contributions this week