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ES 5-9-13


Numbers I'm using on Thursday:


weekly r2 and daily r2 = 1636.50 - 1638 *****

Daily R1 =1632.75


LVN and VA high 1627.50, POC and VPOC 26.25, Pivot 1625.76

so 1625.75 - 1627.50 will be the critical zone

VA low and S1 level 1621.50 - 1622.75..afternoon pull back low is here too

1618.50 - yesterdays low...

1614 - 1616.50..big zone including last weeks highs, buying tail single prints and VA low of Monday...S2 level is here too
Bruce,
do you ever look at the shape of the overnight profile.
right now, I am looking at it and it sort of looks like a b (long liquidation)

I also noticed that overnight profiles tend to tag preceding overnight profile, but today looks like a gap.

do either of these things mean anything to you or anyone else out there
Paul,

I don't look at the shape really as I always think that the key areas from the O/N session are based on some area from a previous day session anyway. So for me they only just confirm day session data.

Some use the O/N shape ( as u know) to try and get a lead on which range extreme of the Overnight will get broken first. Personally I haven't had much luck with that

so I am always seeing if an overnight range extreme can hold because it represents some measure from the day session...usually !

Just my opinion but I continue to look to see what has happened there. I'd like to hear from anyone who may have a lead of the shape concept if there is some edge to it


Here is a brief video of how I refined my areas today....doesn't really speak to O/N shapes but it saves me from making a new post


No video below? Try this link: Thursday.swf






Monthly R2 is 1636 too ...
on a day after an open drive out of value type of day I usually expect more back and forth trade....so today I think our fades will work well off the initial push

if I had to pick a specific magnet price it would be 1626.50..I'm hoping to see the initial buying fizzle out and revert towards that 26.50...and even better would be if the sells come in above 28.75...that would give us two points distance away from there and run outthose stops from the overnight and satisfy the previous days close
just a brief video of why I revised my number to that 24 area and some stuff on the open and drive concept....

I should have mentioned on the video that there is something called the "Auction Point trade " from Steidlmayer or somebody..


when we have a day that closes above the VA highs then we need to watch the IB high from that day...look at Tuesday and wednesday for examples this week...so the IB high of yesterday became support,,,just another reference point to put into the mix


No video below? Try this link: thursday_recap.swf






Thx Bruce for the updates Today
Thanks Sharks and thank you to those who left good words for me yesterday...I should have acknowledged that yesterday...


I appreciate the feedback
I think this market is extremely over-bought. I have an order to buy SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500) at 40.00. It should be filled if the e-mini goes above 1631.00.

I know I'm picking a top, but I feel a retracement is due.

Is this a bad idea?
You made the trade based on your analysis ETM only the market will prove to you whether you were right or not, control your risk...
I like the Idea ETM but it seems like it would be better to see some sign of a trend change like a close below the low of the highest daily bar or at least a stopping price...

yesterday was almost the "P" pattern so perhaps we will consolidate soon and stop one - time framing higher..

I'm the worst at longer term stuff so I really have no clue...

Would this be a long term trade ? what is the target and time frame.?

It would be good if we could close under that 26 - 27 today and also show some selling impulse on the highs...not just these poor highs we have been having...lets see a good old fashioned selling tail !!!

Hope it works out well for you.
Originally posted by ETM

I think this market is extremely over-bought. I have an order to buy SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500) at 40.00. It should be filled if the e-mini goes above 1631.00.

I know I'm picking a top, but I feel a retracement is due.

Is this a bad idea?
Thanks for the input. The price went down to my order, but I didn't get filled. If I get filled, I'll post it.

I'm looking to risk about 0.25 points. Not sure about a target. If filled and the S&P breaks, I'll have a loose trailing stop. Probably exit if I can make 2 points.