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ES 5-14-13

Only three main areas to Initiate from for me today and it will depend on the open to see which ones can be used

1636 - 38.50 - see yesterdays thread and now one of the daily pivot numbers is here too

1631.75 - 32.50...this is an Overnight POC and the upper edge of yesterday

1626.50 - 1627.75 - the multi-day POC and now the overnight VPOC as I type..also the afternoon pull back low

I no longer like the 1630 LVn because they have been running right through it in the overnight session

Look where your standard market profile Value areas come in today too for confluence...they are real close to these zones outlined

one last trade idea for me will be to see us open and immediately rally above the O/N highs....then I will look for a potential dry up in volume to revert back to our upper zone as an initial target.

No reports that I see on the menu

I need my morning Earl Grey !!
No video below? Try this link: tuesday_5-14.swf

expecting a retest of 35 but haven't found the short yet off our key upper zone ..c'mon....!!
selling the 36.50 and the 38 if needed up here...volume coming into 36.50
40.25 short now ..volume coming in..ruff start...38 area is target
one thing to keep in mind is that we have broken out of that balance area ( the 26 ) so consolidation leads to trends....

that idea is keeping me lighter on these short trades that are failing today

3 small losers so far today

trying from 41.50 for ib high test
I'm surprised that the tests aren't coming well today....I like that 39.50 and the 35 but 35 is just too far the iB high is my initial magnet
starting to be more aggressive up here...this is third push and we have the closest LVN - air pocket at 41.25 to target...I'm selling pushes above there to target back to it
A Fib extension from yesterdays price action gets to 1644.27 don't know if that stops the train or not...
if you look back over time you will find that most days that leave single prints off the first 30 minute bar and the hour range will eventually revert back to fill in at least the hour range set of single prints...

while it is always possible to keep trending we have to be looking for signs that this trend today with take a break and consolidate

so I may take small losses , I know what SHOULD happen and don't mind being wrong as long as I have short trades being taken from what I perceive MAY be small exhaustions of volume to get short for those tests below
years ago I would average in and often give back much more than I would like to admit from my profitable days...

The key for me to get better was not to be stubborn and think that I knew in some ways we can welcome the trend day because it teaches us to GET OUT and take the loss.

we also know that days after trend days can be a faders keep the losses small if you think you are trending

the other thing for me is that I donot like once they are able to push 4 points beyond a VALUE area when we open inside value

so once we hit above that 36 - 37 area I was taking smaller trades than normal...still losses but they are manageable

testing the IB high will be a big bonus for me but only because it makes back most of my losses....not all but most...

as a fader the way I have improved is by not having big losses on trend days and making some of the losses back by trading BEYOND my first 90 minute window...assuming I can get some good probabilities to trade for

The best fades happen inside the first 90 minutes except on TREND days. so we need to play longer without being too aggressive..the idea is to not make back ALL the losses...just some of them..

I try to stay objective and trade as If i don't have losses...very hard to do...but you want to take the same signals and trades you would take and try to forget about the losers....JUST TAKE GOOD TRADES with proper targets and signals..

ok , there's my speach and probably more important then seeing the winners happen day after's how you manage the losers that will keep you in this game !!
a double tpo high is not a great way to put in a high....41 is the lowest spot on the chart as per volume..for me 41 - 42.25 is the zone us sellers need to beat.......vpoc at 44 with that double tpo high doesn't make this down test a high probability would be better to get a better high put in first

weekly r2 is at 46.75
profile is "P" shaped but doesnt mean they are done with VPOC...that's my way of saying "scale out heavier on this test" and hope to get lucky for a further drop to the probability was only for the IB high test..