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ES June 3rd 2013


Numbers for me today:


1652.50 bigger picture LVN

1645- 47 bigger picture HVN


Breakdown point and single prints from Fridays day session - 1638.50 - 1640.50

*****Bigger picture LVN and the current overnight POC - 1632.50....this will be the potential stumbling block for those trying for the close gap today if we open above that price today.

1628.75 - 29.75 - current O/N vpoc and fridays close

1626 is bigger picture HVN and last weeks low...

below here is 1621 - 1622...lower edge of the bell curve

at these lower prices we ran into a bell curve that had the HVN at 1626, and the LVN's at 1632 and then one at 1622...nice and symetric..

hopefully a picture later...but the HVN sits right in the middle of it at 1626

lets see where the O/N range ends up in 90 minutes!!
I really dislike having too many numbers but with the weekly pivot at 1642.50 and the VA low from Friday at 42.25 we have to put that on our radar..

we also have two probabilities ....the return to Fridays close at SOMETIME this week if we open in the range and also the test of the weekly Pivot as long as we stay inside that range of last week.

For me it will all depend on where we open in relation to that 1632.50

- if we open above that price then I will try to sell a rally up into the 38 - 40 zone and the 42 zone

- if we open above 32.50 and drop down to it I will try small buys against it but I would much rather use that 32.50 as a target

-if we open under it then I will try sells against the 32.50 as long as we open at least 2.5 points under it and move up to it.

-if we open under it and decline then I would prefer buys near the close of last week and that big LVN at 26

I will also try to buy 1621 - 1622 today and use the 1626 as a magnet

my bias is to the short side as weakness from Friday Usually spills over into monday
remember the 32.50 represents an LVN and a possible rejection point..

so where we open and what happens if/when we test that area is important...having the midrange and POC of the O/N session there is a bonus

I'm hoping we open above it so we have a chance to use it as a target on sells
I want price to be at least 2.5 points above or below that 32.50 before thinking of taking a trade...

a more aggressive buy point would be at the On vpoc and the CLOSE of friday...so I will trade lighter as that area may be CROWDED...I'd really prefer to see the 26 area to take the long especially if 32.50 hasn't been traded back to in the day session yet

on the short side I'd like it above 1635 with the ideal spot up in the 38 - 40 zone

I'm giving these alternate / additional scenarious as some may not wait for MY key zones....they just may push it up a bit and then drag it back into that 32.50.....

I'm watching the price action closely around the open today just in case I can spot a weak rally that doesn't make my zone...or a weak decline that doesn't reach my ideal spot

this is the long winded way of saying that 32.50 is my magnet !!!
minus 4 - 5.5 was there on the push down...now we need magnet to work
a perfect test but this is the most dangerous type of open....one in which we open right at the magnet,,,,,in these cases you always need to wait for the push away from the magnet

as long as the magnet holds now we should see them run out the O/N low and last fridays lows
for those new to bell curve ideas this one is almost perfect..I will post a chart later...but the upper edge of the bell is the 32.50...then we have the center and the HVN node at 26 and the lower end would be down near the 21- 22

as long as we stay inside and under that 32.50 upper edge then it shows they are accepting and not rejecting this lower bell curve..

that isn't good for anyone expecting a rally...so the bulls really need to get outside and above that 32.50 lvn
this is how I had it mapped out in my head..hopefully the chart will explain it better than my words...as I type we have a double low trying to form off our lower LVN zone....that is not the best way to put in a low at an LVN....you want IMMEDIATE rejection...not some mamby - pamby slow motion trade...so i expect new lows
No video below? Try this link: monday.swf






Good numbers and rationale at the beginning of the day's post and good vid with nice explanations. Thx Bruce!
thanks Bruce,, yes, I,m still listening :)
have a question... hope this is a good time.... Apologies in advance, I know this is a technical analysis thread but, I'm actually asking for a friend. (He drives a truck and trades on the road)

Would anyone know what kind of "news" which may be driving the market this morning... I personally believe it's more a calculated contraction...retraction??? I mentioned to him the manufacturing data already but, he didn't think that would cause the wild movement we have this morning... Any insight would be interesting. thx
I think today ( tuesday)we will see a retest of the 38.50 - 40 zone off the 45 - 47 zone....so taking tries up here..plus 5.5 and weekly pivot probability filled in

often u will see this pattern.. a blow through of a low volume point hitting up against a HVN...then they come back for the LVN retest