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ES wednesday 7-17-13


my plan is to take shorts to see if they can try to get part of the LVN at 74.50...so that is my magnet this A.M. If we go 2.5 above this weeks current highs then I will abandon that idea...

nothing else planned for me today

hope it goes well
1/2 gap fill has conflunce in that LVn target...6 point gap....so 77.50 minus 3 points gets us to that LVN magnet
system traders first stops will be at 80.50...that should be another good spot if they push em out and try to shake us Summer position traders !!!!!
that's it for me today...trying to hold runners as usual but being satisfied with just one good idea this summer...I don't trust 72.50 - 74.50 zone...beware if trying to hold for full gap fill...I am !!
I got lucky on a short as well Bruce gonna stick around for awhile. watching to see if 74.00 holds or not.
cool sharks..I got stopped at 74.75 after the 1/2 gap filled to the tick...

if you look at the 5 minute air pocket from yesterday then u will see that it was a perfect fill in...

a look at my chart lines ...my other machine is goofy so this Ib chart will have to do until I fix it
Click image for original size
lines
I have a hard time with knowing which areas are gonna work as targets sometimes. We had this half gap area and LVN from yesterday of 74.00 or so, then an over night break out point around 72.50 then the gap fill from yesterday of 71.50 and then the naked VPOC from yesterday at 70.50.

Obviously 74.00 won out.
Looks like the market got scared at all time highs....
I agree...we can never really know which ones will actually play out so I think that is when confluence comes into play......The pitbull can help if we believe in it enough or at least think that they don't often open and just drive out without coming back. where we open in relation to the previous days value can help too.


we had lots down there below 75.....with last weeks high, the lvn, 1/2 gap...air pocket from the O/N and yesterday..the minus 4 ala pitbull...too many things so the market drove to where buyers are attracted....it will drop to attract buyers and rally to attract sellers...classic auction stuff

up top we had contract highs and plus 2.5 and of course all those trying to get the gap to fill will add the half gap to the open print ...so 80.50 took them out..then they dropped it just to frustrate them...or so it seems..


always easier to see this stuff after the fact but we need to think that they aren't going to just open and drive it when we open in value most of the time.

so the net - net here Sharks is that I totally agree with you...it is very hard to know which ones they will target so it's always best to scale out heavier at the very FIRST area that YOU have defined....then hope to get lucky....one or two contract traders have a harder task as they can't get lucky enough but they can still do well if they strive to be satisfied and consistent.

the ideal for me is to have a target 4 points away from where I initiate from. It doesn't always happen but when the conditions are right then I have some room to scale out at 2 - 2.5 points and tighten up to try and stay out of the typical ES mini swings



this now has had two different test on an LVN from the 5 minute.....my crystal ball wants to think that they will go back up again to break the IB high...I'm not trading but I hope it goes they way you need it too
Originally posted by sharks57

I have a hard time with knowing which areas are gonna work as targets sometimes. We had this half gap area and LVN from yesterday of 74.00 or so, then an over night break out point around 72.50 then the gap fill from yesterday of 71.50 and then the naked VPOC from yesterday at 70.50.

Obviously 74.00 won out.
normally when we see a break of an ib high we see another 30 minute time frame pass through that IB extreme...

just now they stopped right at the IB high and didn't break though a second time ...interesting...just pointing it out...way beyond my time to shine...


c ya !
I'm using a 2 point scale then 3 point target after that. Don't always get that much but decent entries that don't get stopped out to quickly, and trying to get to that first scale is the goal.

Thanks Bruce for your insight
Originally posted by duck

Test trying to use my cell phone. Looks I can post bit can't vote


I can do both on my cell phone. I have to zoom on the vote buttons and make them big enough for my fingers to hit.