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ES Tuesday 8-27-13

here is how I have it...we need to watch that lower distribution mentioned on the video at the beginning....if they are to find support to buy into then it will be off of watch that 34 area closely and that poor low if it gets that far

everyone is short in the overnight...hopefully they are too short...

No video below? Try this link: tuesday.swf

These numbers are based opn using the the CLOSE of the overnight as the Open for the RTH.
for educational purposes only.

Generally, the larger the gap, the less likely that there will be a complete fill to the close of the previous day. That does not mean that price will not be able to bounce intraday, it just means odds do not favor a complete fill

Problem with big gaps is potential for margin calls which only add to selling pressure as losing long positions are liquidated SELLING out of the positions.

I have seen similar overnight action produce a bounce that goes to the low of the previous day and then stops rising.

ESU13...............TRADE DAY: TUESDAY, 8/27/2013
GAPS Measured to 4:15pm Settlement

ESU13 Today GAP DOWN was -16.00 points.

GAP FILL = print of 1654.00

Half Gap Fill = print of 1646.00

1/2 EXT DOWN = 1630.00

FULL EXT DOWN = 1622.00

Gap Traders often risk a move of half the gap away from the Open
and still hold Long for the full gap fill.
Half Gap extension (pressuring the LONGS) means watch 1630.00
for signs of SELL STOPS being Hit.

Some Gap Traders will risk FULL gap extension before selling to exit Long.
That means SELL STOPS could be triggered BELOW 1622.00
i'm long on the opening range trade....aggressive and small..I want that 41
trying to hold something for the 43.50 is difficult because we would be expecting the market to open and drive and also we have already moved up 4- 5 points off the we need a bit of luck here...and we are at our first possible reistance point
just went flat at 42.75...just too close to magnet !!
nice to watch that hit...if only i wasn't so jittery today but on those opening range trades I always trade smaller because you are buying a break of the opening range...very aggressive;
Well done Bruce
I checked the numbers generated for the gap information above ...the close of the overnight was equal to the Open for the RTH...All those numbers are correct.

I have run this code on various openings and the biggest discrepancy I have seen is one tick, that is 0.25 points, so I think I am just going to include a mention of this in the output file and only bother running the code that generates gap, half-gap and extensions based on the "close of overnight as open for RTH" code.
thanks is how and why I played it like I did...not usually my style but under certain market context it is ok to try with smaller numbers running
No video below? Try this link: tuesday_part_2.swf

with the overnight low mathcing the Ib low I am trying to find a small seesm likely that the O/N low will get run with the IB today....hopefully not TOO logical so all can c

watch the Ib midpoint closely to see if we are going to be wrong on this idea and/or a stop loss level
Thanks again for the quality explanation. Good to see your still hard at it.
it will be interesting to see from here if they can rally it now that half gap traders are out and the poor low has been run out....see Pauls half gap post