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MP Spoos Feb9th




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We are entering one of those times where it behoves investors to batten down the hatches and make sure that they have money managment and risk management honed. We are very close to a meltdown in stocks
quote:
We are entering one of those times where it behoves investors to batten down the hatches and make sure that they have money management and risk management honed. We are very close to a meltdown in stocks
This isn't just Market Profile that's saying this to you is it? Because that's a fairly radical statement. I take it that you're looking longer term than just the next couple of weeks and are taking into account general economic conditions right?
The answer to your question is:After this amount of time with my posting "ye of little faith". You should know better.
All my calls , all my analysis is all in the MP. Its all in the LDB. Its all in the COT report. Yes there are outside influences that enter the market place but do you see me use them. Its all in the PROFILE.
Its in the Long Term Profiles. The annual, The Quarterly, the Monthly, The weekly, The market is distributing and it will all end in tears. Can you not see ever so gently the build of lower value. The higher it goes and I grant you there is one chance/possiblibilty (not probability note but) that we may still make one more high at 1232.3. Go look at my comments on Jan 27th for example. I stand by the fact that I use MP exclusively and have done since 1987 when I first met Pete Steidlmayer. It is the most powerful discipline I have ever come across showing development in terms of time and participants in real time. It is dynamic and forward looking unlike most other indicators which are lagging. Forgive me for making this next comment: You need to stand back from the noise and see the wood for the trees and it has become noticeable that as volumes have improved mainly due to more particpation by the ultra short term flippers that people have become blinded by tick charts. One needs to seperate the foreground from the background and look to the Other Time Frame Participant - That means the Longer Term CTi2 or Commercial - for he is the dominant trader.
It is from the longer term MP charts that one can then extract the short term trade. If you don't believe me then you must think my analysis and calls are a fluke but as an ex Long Bond Trader who has applied MP to Stock Indices after this amount of time I reckon I must be doing something which is almost a case of looking inside the invisible heart of the market. I am travelling in the NY area until March 2nd so unlikely to post further for a while. If you want information then I urge all to sign up to my website which will be kept up to date on a timely basis especially with all things Market Profile.
quote:
Originally posted by alleyb

...After this amount of time with my posting "ye of little faith". You should know better...




I have a lot of faith in MP as I use it every day. My problem is that so far I have not been able to find any "actionable" information in your charts and postings. Your summaries are informative and interesting but I can't trade off them per se.

This could be a personal nuance, but I like strategies that I can take and use as benchmarks for trading decisions. For example, I calculate a daily "raw gap strategy" - this is the daily return on executing a gap fill trade without stops. Obviously no one would or should execute this strategy without stops but this gives a benchmark against which your own performance can be measured. This strategy is in general profitable.

I also ran 3 months of forward/live testing of a Market Profile Single Print strategy during May, June and July of last year which is documented in full on this forum:
May Single Print Strategy
June Single Print Strategy
July Single Print Strategy

This produced some great results for a benchmark for using this strategy. These strategies need to be combined with other factors in the market to make them usable as the stops are too tight and a couple of filters are missing.