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ES Monday 9-23-13


I have two bell curves to work from today so these numbers describe the upper, middle and lower edges


first one above current Overnight price is

1706.75

1703.75

1701.25


the one below is

1697.50

95.50

93.25


magnet price for me is going to 1701.25 ...as we trade under that price now in O/N session . I think 95 - 97.50 is the real key support as that is post fed breakaway point




other area below is 89- 90...other area above is 1710.25 = 1711.75


remember the concept that if we open inside a weekly range we have 85 % chance of going back to that weeks close SOMETIME this week....it doesn't mean it will be today...

Longside is prefered for me today but i want to see Fridays weakness get played out first...so if we open and drop down then buys are better or if we open under fridays lows.....if we above fridays lows and rally up a bit then sells are in my plan.....it will be crowded selling near the 03.75 today....a better magnet if we can get a long working


a simple chart to show the zones


Click image for original size
simple
average price for me on this is 94.50...the lower edge of that bell...same target
taking something at 96.50...just so close to O/N low test and upper bell area
that was also the test of the single prints off the first 30 minute bar....we need to start getting some better rejection up off the failed Ib break and this lower belll or else the 1690 is in th eplan for the shorts...runners gonna be stopped soon I think...we need some more luck....and buyers.....tuff playing inside a bell curve!!
just got stopped out on runners....probably will play under the 93.25 but not my favorite and target 95 ......89 - 90 is below if we are way off on this
buying into 90.75...revsing target to single prints at IB...ideally near 93.50 first...
Wondering if 1689.50 will hold up
any long in this 89 - 90 zone needs to make sure you take something off before the 93.25 low ...I've got 90.50 and 89.75 on....
while I think they will come back to test that 93.25 I have made my target 92.50
the break of the 90 minute low was trying to make the second set of single prints on the day .( too early for that)..so when we traded into the lower zone it is ( i hope) a good place to try the longs
Definitely one time framing down today, thought we might base out in here.
Nice hit off that low Bruce