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ES Monday 2-24-14


Much of this may be useless by the time we open as we have seen moves happening a bit past 9 a.m but here is context chart...this is Friday's trade against the bigger picture...note how the VA low goes well with a big hump in prices from the composite


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context



next we have what has happened in the overnight....we had a selloff at the after noon pull back high but have come back to it as I type...on this chart when you see "9:30" it is a day session and when u see the date it is the overnight...note also how the current O/N low stopped at VA low from a few days back at the 29 area...an important reference for the future..note also how the On POC and VPOC formed at a LVN spot from friday ("P" period highs).....so if we open in Value today we may need to use two different buy spots...the VA low from Friday but also the 1835 number ..so I'm making 35 - 36.50 a zone to look at whenever we get back to that


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overnight


and here is a day session Volume profile...note that 32.13 from a bell curve from Thursday...that goes well with another hump from our CONTEXT chart....so if we open above we not only have the 35 - 36.50 zone but under Fridays lows we bump up into that 32....then the 29 below there ..above is that 42 and then we might as well just wait till we see if they can push new contract highs above...so watch 46 - 47 closely if they push there today ....many short traders would be trapped from longer term shorts but also those who thought they caught a good short trade and have stop outs above Fridays highs.....all that short covering could lead to a trend...just something to be careful of


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esh4



quick update...here is a new O/N chart... as I was making this we rallied higher to the 41- 42 area....it seems the real key to getting this right today is going to be that afternoon pull back high and LVn at 39..


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overnight2
often they will come back and test a previous high that has been in the market under everyones radar...so that is what my trade is about and why my target is there...along with the gap in the data
coming out heavy at 47 on this second test into 46.50 as it can't print yet....look at volume buildout on volume histogram at the highs....those are late buyers soo far I think
when my first trade is a loser , like it was today - I always want to get out much faster and heavier up front....I want my money back much quicker !! good for my brain !!
here is volume histogram buildout at the highs
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buildout
I'm taking a long try here no the retest of previous highs let's see if it provides support
On at 4675
gap in data is at 45.50 and it seems they will torture any runners for that
targeting the volume at 4875
My stop is below that gap fwiw
Coming off at 4875, small runners will try for new high knowing 50 might be a significant block
OK I'm flat again at 4925. That's it for me Hopefully will see you tomorrow.