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ES Thursday 2-27-14


some context first... a look at how this week is unfolding....basically same as context chart we have been using
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context


next we look at Wednesday double distribution day.....note the two separate bell curves with an LVN in the middle at 1844.75...where is last weeks high ??? ok..u get it
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double dist


still no test of last weeks close ..an 85 % probability...so that 44.75 becomes real important as we go into the last two days of trade

8:30 reports tomorrow morning so won't even attempt to formulate a plan yet until after those hit the market....
i want to see day session vpoc flip down to 40....that would put current vpoc under YD vpoc...which in this case should help our short bias..
a quick look at what is happening...this helps me keep runners looser....I get distracted by posting especially when runners are doing all the hard work..vpoc did flip but so far is not attracting the sellers I wanted to see.
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daysession2
runners stopped at 41.75...ugh..frustrating..I was hoping we would stay under YD VA lows
gonna watch to see if we can retest 40.75 and try to sell weak bounces up off that....otherwise this day is done...may just be more coiling....2nd 30 minute bar sits inside the first....I wouldn't fade the Ib breakout today...just my two cents....
Day of missed opportunities for me. Missed initial high test because I was afraid of 44-44.50 area. Missed initial low test because I held out for too good an entry. Instructive watching you trade the lines on my chart, though, Bruce ;-) But missed opportunities are cheap tuition (community college rates). Bad trades can be expensive (like flunking out of Harvard!).
I'd have to see this get into 47.50 - 48.50 to think about fading it...otherwise gonna let this LVN do what it needs to do...many will try to sell 45.50 and have a stop up at 48 I think...not a terrible idea but I'm gonna pass..good luck if you are on it..watch that 43 - 43.50 as a target area...
vpoc has fliipped HOD again..perhaps we need to try and join the sellers
on 44.50 but small and I think I am late
Cominig into 43.5lvn as I type. I think the only thing I might take now is if it blew through 47 or 38. I might fade the retest of those numbers.
tryingto get 43...damn....too busy typing today.......was just too late to get a better trade off
took last off at 48.25...made us work 15 minutes xtra today but it payed off........a great example of how probabilities can hurt and help in trading...for me they seem to hurt more than help ...like trying to get yesterdays lows...but we did use it to get the O/N high....so a mixed review of probabilities for me today