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ES Thursday 6-5-14


here are the levels I'm watching " You're talking a lot but you're not saying anything " - Talking Heads song Psycho killer
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The plan for me is to sell at or near 31.50, the overnight high and the opening range low....I'm not taking all of them and only want to get one right in order to try and target yesterdays RTH high ultimately...with numbers / key areas at every two points intervals I am only shooting to get 1.75 points before taking something off and tightening the stop on runners....

selling the Opening range low is the highest risk and may require multiple tries...watch to see if we go 4 points above or below the open print today.....so if we open near 30 - 31.50 then 4 points DOWN hits near YD highs....no buys for me on the gap higher open today...although some will be buying the OR high...
selling O/N vpoc at 29.50...but better sells sit up at 31.50...targeting volume at 27.25...high risk we have already tested YD high...r they rejecting it ?? gonna only try this short idea twice in the 29.50 - 31.5o zone
I've haven't seen a day in a long time where they eventually haven't got a plus OR minus 4 off the opening print....so the minus 4 puts us back to my 24 area...so runners are getting greedy today...minus 4 is 24.25 on my data....ok to be greedy if you realize it and you only have a contract or two working ...but best to take off more up front ALWAYS...sellers want to see the 10 am close under YD highs...buyers want it above there at 10 am////so the battle begins
Dalton would say this is a low confidence open because we had multiple trades on each side of the open print....the 30 minute close was right at yesterdays highs so I wouldn't give that any weight ..so buyers nor sellers won based on that filter alone...with the big report tomorrow anything is possible from here...

not gonna do much from here....not a good stop and reverse player so didn't buy to initiate longs at the minus 4 / key 24 number...good luck to those who did buy there..watch 26.50 - 27 now.......seems like the critical spot if longs are gonna keep going...
interesting one time framing trend under way.......I'm setting an alert to tell me if we get a 30 minute close back under the Overnight high.....then I will look for a short idea...otherwise this just runs away without me....lots of singles on the chart and it's early in the day
last 3 - 30 minute bars have gone up on low volume and low ranges....so we have a POSSIBLE sign of a top with that slight selling tail...I think this previous low bracket test is important now....ideal would be to see a close below the low of the high bar.....overall still agressive though...just pointing that out....I'm shoveling rock out in the hot sun to distract myself and test my tolerance for pain...us day traders love pain !!
Shorting against one time framing higher price action is what I was doing, should have shoveled some rocks instead.
I hear ya Sharks.....perhaps another reason to focus on the first 90 minutes or so.....I lose more money after 11 a.m then at any other time....but still the lure of trading is always there for me...i really thought they'd have retested the 34.50 - 36 area again....well the day isn't over yet....fun to make market calls that might happen but it's more fun to make money.....


and I can tell ya that shoveling rocks is a big ZERO on the fun scale !!! ..good luck if ya are playing the closing session today!!