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ES July 1 2014


how i see it...not much to say..narrow range yesterday so will breakout traders win on a higher open or will us faders be able to drive prices back toward 84.....? us sellers may need to start after 9 A.m...volume in O/N is happening right at R1 and YD high area so that is first possible support if we open higher....I'm creating a big sell zone that starts at 57.50 and runs up to all time highs but would be more aggressive on shorts generated first at 57.50 - 58 and then at new all time highs.........keeping in mind that weekly R1 is at 62.75 too so that would be a separate spot for my last short idea today....shorts will only happen if O/N midpoint and/or the pivot of yesterday at 1954 hasn't been traded to yet...IT's 9 a.m and time to try
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Bruce,
thanks for your comments.

One thing... in the first line you have

"...us faders be able to drive prices back to 84."

This should be 54, right?

thanks Paul...just fixed it
working small O/N shorts at 57.50...better fades usually come in RTH..the bottom of the O/N profile has 3 matching tpo's which in my mind adds more weight that implies that longs didn't act fast or aggressive off that low...it doesn't mean we will take out that low but helps me form more of a short bias....55.25 will be first target on any fades from this first short zone
I took small loss on break from the first one minute high...trying again from 59.50 print with the plan to probably add on at new all time highs....57.25 is my target on shorts from these levels now
The exceptionally lite overnite volume suggests that one sided volume could create unusual and thin movement.
average fill price for me is now 60.50....I don't want to see this much above 62.50 and will use 59 to take something out now....I hope....that is Vpoc...we don't usually see single prints left behind from the O/N high....but the question is...WHEN will they come back for that test??
hit target and then got stopped...trying one last try from 62.50...weekly number is up here... going very small as this is a marginal day so far...one win and that small loss from O/N ...will try to getto 60.25 before we get to 65 even...
fwiw,
Please don't think this is really important... I post it only because we have had some one sided trade today

for a 5 day period, I calculate what the average price movement is between the Open of the RTH and the High of the RTH.
that number for today calcs to 64.50...
Believe me, this number does not have to print, but it represents the average movement from the Open to the HOD..so on average price has swung to the edge of it's "5 day typical" upside envelope.
Do you also calculate the Open to RTL?
to the RTH low?
Thanks Bruce, I,d already long hit the hay by the time you sent this thru, but still good info to store away and use as needed......