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ES Monday 9-22-14


First video is what I think ES should do then second video goes into ratchet levels with SPX cash and how I am planning to use the ideas for options selling


No video below? Try this link: monday_9-22.swf









the biggest challenge we face now is : Will the spx cash market want the 2000 retest or go back to 2025 first this week....? I'd like to see the test down in the 2000 cash first to set up buys this week and maybe even today to go for the 2025...I expect this month to have 57 points of range at a minimum which on the upside would project to to 2034...and if the sellers are coming back then we project down to 1965 Cash before the month is over...7 trading days left for one of those to happen

here is my spx babble...I'm not sure if I conveyed what I had planned
No video below? Try this link: spx_levels.swf






trying one last small long at 87.25......at 11 a.m we will have two sets of single prints left on the chart so i would still be thinking about longs from a probability standpoint in general ...low odds that they keep a 30 and 60 minute breakout without filling in one by days end......this is a two contract trade to see if I can get the IB low to print again......86 number is the 80 % volatility band.....I won't like to see us in the 83.50 area for too long and setting a hard stop there now as I need to go make my tea......challenge will first be to get back above VA low of 9-17
I took one off at 89.50 because it was the VA low of 9-17...trying to hold this last one and either way this is all for me today
i exhausted my votes for today on your posts Bruce...very nice teaching overall

thanks and gl from here
thanks apk...I think we are now on our way to our IB low...that last flush out and into the 80 % band of volatility.....83.50 would have been the 88% band..so below there we only go 12 % of the time...it would be nice to see this be the low for the day now
now the question i have is why were you using a hard stop on this last long? from what i see from your trading you usually take small losers and this would have been a 4 pt loser if stopped...i understand the location of the stop as that is the spike down after the fomc last wednesday...i still had 86.5 as the limit of where i would want to hold this long or not...so we touched it but did not go below it, hence i am still in it looking for those 90.5 and may be 93.5 targets

thanks
where can i read more on those volatiliy posts...i assume you elaborated on them...any idea excatly what day it was ?

thanks
hoping this POCand vpoc flip down helps push price up on this final...and nice call aladin about those single prints...you got your open and drive....so far....I'd be watching the 60 and 90 minute range extremes closely to see if it's going to "Stick".....down fridays followed by down Mondays traditionally are not a good think for the market....but that all time high as an Overnight high is a bad thing for long term shorts...
See the post where I CAME OuT HEAVY AT 90.50 AND THEN i HAD THE 87.25 ...OOPPS..SOORRY FOR CAPs...then I had the 87.25 longs which I still have one left for that IB low....I know it's hard to follow.....
Originally posted by apk781

now the question i have is why were you using a hard stop on this last long? from what i see from your trading you usually take small losers and this would have been a 4 pt loser if stopped...i understand the location of the stop as that is the spike down after the fomc last wednesday...i still had 86.5 as the limit of where i would want to hold this long or not...so we touched it but did not go below it, hence i am still in it looking for those 90.5 and may be 93.5 targets

thanks
not sure what exact ES thread I did it...I ramble too much but they are based on haggerty volatility bands ...here is a brief explanation.......
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/coding-forum/5190-volatility-bands.html

Originally posted by apk781

where can i read more on those volatiliy posts...i assume you elaborated on them...any idea excatly what day it was ?

thanks
88.25 is my day done...I think they will still get IB low but just want it to be over for today...heck...I worked almost 40 minutes overtime today
well, now that we have a single also at 86.50 that has to be the target first....the odds of a 30 and 60 and 90 minute day leaving singles behind at all three areas is less that 1% .......so in my world there is a 99% chance of coming back to the 90 minute low....I've said too much....trade it or fade it....my money is on the longs now at least until 86.50 trades...LOL...nuff said....and too many posts today....