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ES Thursday 9-25-14


The levels I see and we are hitting down into one now...need to watch 83.75 - 85.50 for clues...I favor longs...after a trend day they often like to buy breaks and sell rallies....so this may be the break happening now in O/N session......failure below that 83.75 will push to 80 - 81...just an FYI ...working on a second video to add to this post
No video below? Try this link: Thursday_9-25-14.swf








damn jing cut me off...the nerve !! was trying to mention at the end is that they like to drive the cash to the 00, 25, 75 numbers but in between you can split it out to 12.5 increments and even further to 6.25 increments if you want much Iike I did on the fib grid thread with the ES futures

this video also covers some Greenies !!
No video below? Try this link: cut_me_off_jing.swf






i have a cash volatility band at 71 and days SPX low is 1970.4...this puts it at the 95 % band so only 5 % of the time we go and close lower than the current cash low...so I think it's a good probability to stay away from longs at or near andy lows....if I was trading I would be hunting longs aggressively
was the number of trades you did today more than a normal day?
Stay away from Longs or pursue them? I think you mistyped here Bruce. I believe you meant to say keep looking for Longs?


Originally posted by BruceM

i have a cash volatility band at 71 and days SPX low is 1970.4...this puts it at the 95 % band so only 5 % of the time we go and close lower than the current cash low...so I think it's a good probability to stay away from longs at or near andy lows....if I was trading I would be hunting longs aggressively
and look at that beautiful test of the IB low............hope somebody held for full print...I have volume zone at 59 - 61.50 and then don't have anything as per volume until 1951.......that would be nasty.......so I'm gonna say that the 59 - 61.50 will put the low in for today
pursue longs on any push down...
Originally posted by NewKid

Stay away from Longs or pursue them? I think you mistyped here Bruce. I believe you meant to say keep looking for Longs?


Originally posted by BruceM

i have a cash volatility band at 71 and days SPX low is 1970.4...this puts it at the 95 % band so only 5 % of the time we go and close lower than the current cash low...so I think it's a good probability to stay away from longs at or near andy lows....if I was trading I would be hunting longs aggressively

oopps u r correct I meant to say to stay away from SHORTS at these low levels......sorry
if we only go lower 5% of the time then you want to be buying for the 95% of the time we don't go lower...
Bruce, can you explain how you came up with those probability numbers again? Sorry I did not get it...
it based on haggertys probability bands...I linked it somewhere either yesterday or the day before...or google haggertys probability band and traders laboratory...let me know if you can't find it
ok got it. thanks!
Thanks for the explanation Bruce. Enjoy your vacation!