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ES Monday 10-6-14


Gonna kick off with this video and will add a second one to this post in a minute
No video below? Try this link: monday_10-6.swf










here is more ramble and I also forgot to mention that fridays gap and go rally was on lower volume than the previous day...u can see that on my SPX chart that I posted on the first video....so I am building my case for the short fades in early trade today
No video below? Try this link: monday_part_two.swf






whacky day....weekly pivot is 52.50 and weekly LVN at 53.50...interesting spot to have them go retest 55.50 - 56......taking a small long
90 minute breakdowns happen best when the third thirty minute bar of the day is inside the IB.......so these singles above off the 90 minute low have a higher probability of filling because that thrid bar wasn't completely inside the IB.( it exceeded the IB by one tic so it is still questionable) ..but we need to get above 55.50 and soon or else this is no good for longs and no chance that we will get lucky and get the singles to fill in way up at 59....so be quick or be dead
a failure here will try to push for the volume at 49.50...I'm not so sure we have failed yet
the break of the ib happened on the 3rd 30m minute bar which went down to 59.25 (ib low was 63.25) so not sure what you are talking abt here

Originally posted by BruceM

90 minute breakdowns happen best when the third thirty minute bar of the day is inside the IB.......so these singles above off the 90 minute low have a higher probability of filling because that thrid bar wasn't completely inside the IB.( it exceeded the IB by one tic so it is still questionable) ..but we need to get above 55.50 and soon or else this is no good for longs and no chance that we will get lucky and get the singles to fill in way up at 59....so be quick or be dead
yeah, sometimes my brain works better than my typing .......the joys and perils of trading and posting.....

if the 90 minute range is formed with the third - 30 minute bar of the day inside the IB then a break of the IB ( which is also a break of the 90 minute range- THAT IS CRITICAL) low can be a valid breaK AND WE HAVE A lower PROBABILITY OF RETESTING THE 90 MINUTE LOW.......damn cap locks...sorry.......but if we form single prints off the 90 minute range and the third bar has extended already beyond the IB ( think one time framing down) then there is a very high probability of trying to retest the 90 minute low.....

said another way...if the 90 minute low is also the IB low then we have a greater chance of having a true break away ( think about how consolidation leads to trend) but then we reverse it...if we trend in the first 90 minutes then we have a greater chance for a consolidation or a try for a retest of the 90 minute breakaway......like we are doing today.
Originally posted by apk781

the break of the ib happened on the 3rd 30m minute bar which went down to 59.25 (ib low was 63.25) so not sure what you are talking abt here

Originally posted by BruceM

90 minute breakdowns happen best when the third thirty minute bar of the day is inside the IB.......so these singles above off the 90 minute low have a higher probability of filling because that thrid bar wasn't completely inside the IB.( it exceeded the IB by one tic so it is still questionable) ..but we need to get above 55.50 and soon or else this is no good for longs and no chance that we will get lucky and get the singles to fill in way up at 59....so be quick or be dead

today apk it was bit more subjective because we had a one tic break of the 90 minute low and then we popped higher but on second break we left single prints behind near the 90 minute low area...
thanks for claryfing it thanks !

Originally posted by BruceM

today apk it was bit more subjective because we had a one tic break of the 90 minute low and then we popped higher but on second break we left single prints behind near the 90 minute low area...
and another way to look at it is this...today we are one time framing down and all areas that were once single prints have been filled in...except we haven't tested officially the 120 minute low which was right near the 90 minute low