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ES Tuesday 10-7-14


not so clear today but I am using 54 as a magnet in early trade...YD was a low volume decline and all the trade is under YD settlement in O/N session.........probability tells me that 64 OR 48 will print today but that is of limited use unless you keep taking trades off of the first 5 minute bars range highs or lows.... watch 47 - 49.50 and then 44 area on downside....

big selling would have confluence with SD bands and S2 at 38 - 39......nuff said..I am looking for longs in On at 49 - 50.50 area but prepared to add in and be more agressivfe if we can push under the current On midpoint...54 is closest volume magnet I see......I don't like trades inside of that mini bell of yesterday so 58 - 61 is a better magnet area and if fading from long side then wait until we push above YD VA high near the 64 if you must take the short today
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and here are 30 minute untouched volume nodes.....attractors..
Click image for original size
thirtyminute
I took a quick 1 point loss in an On trade.... starting to be more active down at 46.75 on longs now......they should at least want to mess with the 47 area and that Vpoc at 49 as first targets....keeping it small and will be more active in rth,
Thanks for the startup, Bruce.

Yesterday's move down was on lower volume.
O/N inventory is short.

Looks like another gap open today.

As always: I'm on open-drive alert.

Numbers above: 1950.50, 1956.25
Numbers below: 1947.25, 1944.75
long 42 and 44 in rth ...failures here will try for 38 - 40 area
I'd like to see the retest of 44.75......
coming out heavy at 44.75...this is an lvn and we could just as easily flip back down...will try to hold to see if I can go get 46.75 and then 49 but that is gonna require some luck today...so not expecting runners to get lots of love so easy in here
flat at 42.50 ...this market may need to go see last weeks vpoc at 40.....so 38 - 40 is my next key zone
starting new longs and small at 40 even with a bigger plan to add at 38.50
taking something off at 42 ...a previous key number....and todays time VA low is here
trying to hold for 43.75 is next...but not much ammo here...we need to get outside of the VA highs of October second to have any chance of catching a good low....
sorry typo...43.25 is VA high from 10-2.....32 % chance we don't close under 39.75 today....not the best odds but that was also a one standard deviation move down...so buying into that 40 was the right move even if it was scary
and one last thing...it still seems as if the buyers are stepping in slightly under the 50 - 51 spx cash 50% retreace line I mentioned this morning ...so watch that 50 - 51 line as per cash that would be about 42 - 44 the ES....