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ES Thursday 12-18-14


gonna kick it off with trying to answer a few questions from Tuesday trades....
No video below? Try this link: lesson_trade.swf








and here is "M" pattern from today...trade it at your own risk like all of this stuff
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key numbers for Wednesday Overnight and Thursday....employment report at 8;30 EST

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vwap
My data is still pretty limited, but in the last 44 times that we hit an R or S pivot number, we hit a second one 21 times.
Hey, NewKid,
if you get a hold of daily VPOC data (RTH ONLY), please share it with me.

and I don't think you should worry about posting your trades. If there is someone here who has never had a loser I can make one assumption... They haven't ever traded.

We all make bad trades so this will hopefully be a positive place for feedback........I can advise two things from this post.....1) stay out of the Overnight session and wait for the day session........my worst trades come in the overnight and usually never the best ones.....most often I find a better opportunity in RTH.......since most of the value of the Overnight is in it's ability to CONFIRM day session numbers I would stay and play in RTH only....2) condition yourself to take many tries with small losses.....

with a 9 point loss you could take four trades and use a 2.25 point stop on each......I would try three times at each of YOUR predefined areas but no more.
Originally posted by NewKid

if you guys don't mind, i am going to start posting all my trades here.i have not been doing so because of fear of public embarrassment but i think that is exactly what i need. i am not disciplined with my stops and that has been burning me. maybe you guys commenting on it might knock some sense into me.

this AM in ETH i took a short at 30.5 thinking it was a LVN from 12/10 and 12/11 and was looking for the O/N singles at 23. Instead i held and held and finally stopped out at 39.5 to take a 9 point loss.

i should have stopped myself out much sooner than that and taken the short that i had identified at 34.75 which was the POC from the past with an exit at 30.
Paul, i have the 30-min VPOC data downloaded for the Mar 15 contract and now i am trying to get the same for the Dec 14 contract but for whatever reason it says i do not have the data so i will dig into it. once i have that, i should be able to give you the daily VPOC data easily. i will let you know when it is available

Originally posted by PAUL9

Hey, NewKid,
if you get a hold of daily VPOC data (RTH ONLY), please share it with me.

and I don't think you should worry about posting your trades. If there is someone here who has never had a loser I can make one assumption... They haven't ever traded.


eech...that not very good is it
Originally posted by ackwired

My data is still pretty limited, but in the last 44 times that we hit an R or S pivot number, we hit a second one 21 times.
thsi would be very interesting I think
Originally posted by NewKid

i think i figured it out. stay tuned for the results on the 30-min VPOC. i will see if i can get something out today
i might have to wait till the end of the trading day to download the Dec 14 data..
market is still rejecting last weeks POC of time..on a weekly basis the VA high this week developing still sits at 2000
Here is a spreadsheet with 30-min VPOC data for the March contract. I will attempt to do the same with the Dec contract as soon as i can get the raw data
Click link to access uploaded file:
ESH5_ALL.xlsx
Originally posted by BruceM

market is one time framing DOWN and value is overlapping to lower that 12- 11

Bruce, from what I understood from Dalton: "The market has to take care of current business first".
Therefore I compare current day value to yesterday's value (and not the value of 12/11).

So value being higher and no O/N inventory adjustment, kept me thinking long.
(My entry was near the O/N swinglow - see chart).

Gotta run, don't want to keep Mr. Dalton waiting...

Click image for original size
thursday 2014dec18
no..I never trade at this time...never do after market trading but will sometimes take trades around 9 a.m EST...but even then it would be small
Originally posted by NewKid

Bruce, are you trading for those greenies?