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U.S. 2015 Economic Outlook Summary

From the CME

U.S. economy is poised for a sixth year of continuous expansion, with our base case scenario for real GDP to be on a 3% growth track in 2015.

There are risks, on both the upside and downside, to this outlook. The downside elements are mostly international, including a decelerating China and the potential for any escalation of geo-political tensions. Upside factors include underestimating the positive influence of sharply lower crude oil prices, and generally too pessimistic economic expectations.

As the financial universe waits for word on if and when the Federal Reserve will begin to raise its target range for the federal funds rates, our view is that if the Fed’s objective is to get from near-zero to between 1.00% and 1.25%, this might be accomplished in one fell swoop, or in just two steps instead of four to eliminate the uncertainty of a drawn-out process.