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ES Friday 2-27-15


Bands for the day. Good luck to all.
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iv022715
Greenies for the day:

2111.25
2009.25
2092.75
2089.75
2085

Weekly VPOC: 2096
Weekly POC: 2092.25
5.75 to 6 (VAL, O/N low) might be a good place to try longs targeting 9.75/11 (POC, VAH). Else I would try shorts from ~11 (VAH, greenie) targeting VAL. I would place more probability on the long working rather than the short because the short would be initiating from a HVN which I would rather not do
I noticed that VA on Wednesday was inside the VA of Tuesday even though there was a higher High on Wednesday. (Like the market didn't know whether to go higher or lower...) Does this often precede a probe lower like Thursday's?

yesterday (Thursday), the VA was overlapping and Lower than the VA on Wednesday does that mean there should be a test lower today? or did yesterday's drop and buying tail fulfill that worry?


yesterday, the VAH was 1 tick UNDER the POC of Wednesday. Does that mean anything for today? Does it mean that the 2111 level has two bearish counts against it.

there was a a good buying tail in yesterday's session that pushed price all the way up to the POC of the developing week, but not over it...

These are just things I've noticed...

Has anyone here ever looked at PA on a day following Lower POC, Lower VAH, Lower VAL? because m watching.

With overnight inventory SHORT: is price going to reach up, tag the developing weekly POC near 2111 and then reverse?

This gets complicated, I think I'm going back to brain surgery.

OK, I have nothing more than the most important levels of 2101 as support, 2111 as resistance

And wehre has the volume gone? When I look at a chart of ES daily (4:00 closes), the last time we saw volume this consistently lower was just after Christmas as the market was topping ith small range days just like what we have been seeing.
Paul, I very much agree with you on all your points and the questions you raise are very fair. It would be interesting to research the answers to those questions but I do not see any easy way to do those. Obviously Wednesday's highs being an all time high adds another level of information. 2111 is definitely acting as resistance right now and that is reflected by the PA and the greenie I see there. There is a very high chance that we go and tag 2111 before reversing and therefore I would not hold any longs above that level. I think on the downside it would be good to have a band from 2099.5 to 2101.5 as support.

BTW, it is good to know that someone else is seeing things the way I am. At least it is a high probability way of looking at things so even if it does not work out that way, I know were thinking in terms of high rate of success
I'm basically formulating the same idea...I have no motivation for this market today but here is how I see things....
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started small longs at 07.25 to try and target that 09.25....I feel I may be early and think we may drop down on open...keeping this small as I hate starting out on wrong side in On ...plan is to be more aggressive if we push down into 05.75 and On low in RTH...
does not look like i am going to get my fill and they are going to get there without me. they bounced right off the O/N VPOC at 6.75. Sigh
anyone buying 00 if it prints? I'm passing, took the break down of POC
i got my fill and butchered the trade good. scratched it at b/e
i might be tempted to. i had greenie at 9.25 as written earlier and did not take that short. good trade Big Mike

Originally posted by Big Mike

anyone buying 00 if it prints? I'm passing, took the break down of POC
oh yeah...ya gotta walk before ya run.....I've been researching options for years but at a snails pace.....the thing that I find so great about the options is that it is all based on statistics and probabilities......it sure doesn't mean that the trades will all work but it it is quite different then the discretion I use in my day trading.....but I think you are doing the right thing..........stay the course u r on ..........I'm hoping to have a portfolio of short term and long term options......so I'm looking at longer time frame ideas too like iron condors and all that other cool stuff....the TOS software is really cool too but I'm gonna keep my IB account for my ES trades.....
Originally posted by NewKid

Bruce, this sure sounds interesting. I am still getting a hang of the index futures so do not want to attempt to learn too many things right now and confuse myself. I hope that soon I will feel secure about my futures trading so i can take a look at options!