ES Thursday 3-19-15

Bands for the day. Good luck to all.

Paul,
During the intensive we did not have any such big moving days so this did not come up explicitly but I can see Dalton saying that YD was a dual distribution day separated by single prints. He believes that is poor structure that will be repaired at some point. Like Bruce says, we just do not know when. I imagine he would have paid attention to the 83.25 level and see how the O/N turned out to formulate an opinion but I suspect he would have been leaning towards the market being down today as well. I am sure there were laggard longs that came in late in the day YD and they will probably start to liquidate when do not see any pay-back especially after the O/N trading.

The way I look at it, we have already probed below 83.25 but did not see much follow through and instead could have left a potential buying tail. We need to get back below it to clean up those singles.

FWIW, I was leaning towards the shorter side today

Originally posted by PAUL9

Hey, Newkid,
you are the most recent graduate of the Dalton intensive...

What does he say about a POC that has not migrated?
Yesterday's POC was way down from the close.

anecdotally, seems pretty common over the past couple of years that if you get a big move on the announcement, you tend to move in the other direction on the day after.

might consider a short around the O/N mid pt which is also close to one of Bruce's lines and would be a +5 number

OK, thanks NewKid. for your response.
good luck to all

I am done but do not think the lows of the day are in yet.

No gap fill.

no O/N mid point even with news release.

I would go short below the lows with -10 as target, then 74

big mike, when u look at +/- 5 and 10, do u compute those from the 4.15 et close or the open?

ha, stupid fear crept in again. i was short at 83.25 looking for the poor low to be taken out but we went back up to 85 so i stopped myself out at BE about 30 seconds before they hit my target. fear is a funny thing...

the good news is that the old me would have stopped out for a loss but i felt fairly confident they would come back to my entry price so hung around

i think he uses both...

Originally posted by apk781

big mike, when u look at +/- 5 and 10, do u compute those from the 4.15 et close or the open?

I use both and often times the will be correlation between some levels.

NewKid, what and when got you short @ 83.25?

Mike, 83.25 was a fairly important level for me because it was the December high. This was confirmed by the pull back to that level YD (on a 30-min profile). so i figured that if the bulls want to stay in control, they would want to keep things north of it. In the first 30-mins they broke through it to the downside to 81.25 but came right back up. so the bulls defended it. The same thing happened in the third 30 min period where they went through it and came back up. now they left a poor low at 81.25 which had a high probability of getting taken out. so i was looking for a place to get short and i figured 83.25 was a good place to enter. it came within 1 tick of 81.25 again but rallied. in reality, this made the low at 81.25 even weaker so i should have stuck with my trade. and they finally took it out. my entry was around 11.05 ET

good call Mike. There was a good chance of those singles getting cleaned up today. Also nice bounce from the -10 level

Originally posted by Big Mike

I am done but do not think the lows of the day are in yet.

No gap fill.

no O/N mid point even with news release.

I would go short below the lows with -10 as target, then 74

*so double sided extensions where expected