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ES Monday 5-11-15


Come on, sombody write something.

Write something and be wrong (That would be a first for me! LOL

Jim Dalton would look at this open, with with 3 swings through the Opening price of the RTH and say these are the weak hands (short-term traders who will only be holding on long enough to book a profit).
His newest twist on interpretting intraday PA is tyhat when there is relitively normal volume (as measured by te NYSE COMP total volume being less than 450 in the first hour of trade), then he considers that weak hands, not OTF.

When weak hands are in the market, price can easily reverse as they take profits.

What hapened overnight?
Looks to me that the 2107-2106.75 area offered pretty good support.
I run regular value area measures on the overnight and the VAL of the ocvernight was right at 2107.00 so whoever trades in the overnight confirmed the importance of this level.
All in ALl this is crap action.

looking at a 1 minute chart...
every time we print 2113.00 the volume is lack luster and low...
but notice that volume came pretty nicely on the way back up from that 9:55 AM ET dip to 2110.00

No one wants to buy this thing and no one's really selling it.
yesterday's RTH High was chump at 2 TPOs.
The current RTH high is POOR and WEAK, but as long as 2107.00 remains support, we can all die of boredom.

One thing I have noticed when it comes to the obvious (well to things I loo at), like the 2107.00 (Thats where Friday's RTH grew to 2 TPO's wide after the buying tail...
SHadow Trader has a good video on it...

2107.00 is the level we've tested the upside references, is time for for a move lower? Have to keep an eye on the overnight H 2110.50, see what happens there.

The only I can say about this RTH right now is it's just ticking around. and it's ticking me off.

Look at weekly profile, there is a huge area of slow traffic (thin TPO from 2105 down to 2095 and then a little more down 2089-2088
WAKE ME WHEN IT's OVER..
see the volume on the one minute bar for the high bar near 10:06... and the bar ended down... pe9ople were heading to the exits (higher volume and down close).
Now we're at 2110.00 (open for today)( and I don't see any great amount of volume coming in, no longer a bargain here (like everyone thought back right before 10:00 when price movec up to 2111 on 8k of volume.

OK, i guess no one's here.
I'll report back at 2105 and 2101.

Don't let your babies grow up to be traders.
Here's something worth noting...
I started looking at the $TICK in a 15minute bar, exactly the way the ShadowTrader describes in one of his educational videos.

Most of the time I cannot ascribe any great value to the $TICK bars, BUT, tody it sort of Jumped off the chart at me...

Price was up testing the 13.50 level (can you believe that the High print (so far) for the day was exactly, TO THE TICK, the same as yesterday (Friday's RTH H)?

amazing, it;s like somebody was paying attention to that and decided to get out once it printed... maybe that's why there was so little volume earlier in the first bracket when price printed highs of 12.75 an 13.25... but once price printed at that prior day HIGH, whamo... VOLUME on the exit.

ANYWAY, getting back to the $TICK in 15 minute bars... normally useless, but TODY, whn price reached up to that magical 13.50, I looked at the $TICK it's high was above the zero line but the close was below it...
Was this a 10 0'clock turn around?

Well, I wrote that I woud report back at 2105... the swing low has been 2105.50 and there has been some sort of defene of the 2106.00 level.

I can figure this out, but if there were a lot of bulls with conviction, don't you think price could have attracted some volume at the highs to push it higher? Didn't happen.

I'll now be looking to see if the Open (2110.00) CAN GET TESTED FROM BELOW...
OMG, I just saw that some one voted me up.
There is life after death.

Well, my trading day has come to an end... (This is a good time to leave for me because this market is just weak hands trying to pick each other's pockets for small ticks.

I have no idea what will happen now that price is balancing near the open.

One thing I do know... Unless there is a special condition in place, whenever price opens inside VA of prior day RTH, wait for it to go to an extreme, an edge,...... the edge of some sort of an envelope of price before taking a position.

If 06 is undercut again without immediate one bar reversal with volume noticeable volume that turns prices higher, then prices might dribble down to 2102.50 to 2101.75 (Bottom of the buying tail from Friday) I sort of expect it. but I am through for the day..

OK, good luck to all