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ES Monday 8-31-15


Good evening to all. Friday was a balancing day and it was almost inside Thursday's range. Friday's high is only 3 ticks higher than that of Thursday's. I am continuing to have 1950.5 on my radar as that was the previous balance area high and I think it would be prudent to watch if the market slips back into it or if we continue chewing away at 8/21's range and get into that of 8/20.

Greenies: 1894, 1964.25, 1982.25, 1995, 2014.25, 2053.25, 2077.75

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daily082815


Profile:
We can see that on Friday we had a very prominent POC (1981.25) and a VPOC that was close by it (1982). As mentioned earlier, Friday was a very balancing day with the prices coming back to 1981/1982 all day long and failing to break away with much conviction from there. We closed at 1988.75, which is a little far away from the VPOC so that is again interesting to me. On Monday we shall see whether we open inside Friday's range and manage to breakout or if we open outside it and try coming back into it. As we know by now, a prominent POC usually gets visited almost always with the question being on the "when". We shall see how the market reacts around this value as it can become strong support/resistance.


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mp082815


The split profile shows how the market tried breaking away in both directions but failed to do so and ended up creating a prominent POC.

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mpsplit082815


One final note that last week's VPOC was at 1982 and the volume based VAL was 1904.5. We shall see how the O/N plays out and come up with a game plan in the morning. As of right now we are outside Friday's range with the gap down. See you in the morning.
The O/N inventory is 100% net short with actually a gap between Friday's close and current O/N high. The O/N single prints start from 1977.25 so obviously we would need those to be taken out all the way to the close for the buyers to get interested. On the contrary, if the market is unable to break into those single prints, we could see more sellers coming in and driving us down. 1964 is the VPOC from 8/27. Is it going to be 1964 or 1982 today? High likelyhood of one of them getting hit today. Good luck to all.
the battle continues on the edge of Friday's range. so far the market has been unable to break into range convincingly which means that the buyers are not getting anywhere. 30 min VPOC at 1970.5
we are at the 1964 greenie with the 30-min VPOC untouched.... would be awfully nice if we can get to it now...
NK you forgot your favorite quote: lotta single prints in A period, many will be erased :)
ha, you are right that there are a lot of single prints in the A period but all this volatility has kinda numbed me towards it :) they are still trying to get that 30-min VPOC

Originally posted by jimk

NK you forgot your favorite quote: lotta single prints in A period, many will be erased :)
30 min VPOC reached for those that held through that shake down..making another run at Friday's range
through the open again... this is usually a sign of reversal. 1982 and 1988.75 could be on the radar
still indecisive but spending more time in Friday's range
the highs are getting more and more suspicious so i think we could break out to the top but possibly rotate back down later in the day
the picture below is what i mean by the high is likely to be taken out. the weak sellers are selling near the high of the day and that is not likely to last very long

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mp0828152
Thank you. The same to you :)