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2% swing moves


I've been doing research for the past six months on fading moves of 2%(ES) off a most recent swing high or low (1H chart). Seems to be very effective, anybody else with experience in this type of setup?
I've never researched this. How are you doing your research? A spreadsheet of prices?
Visual research by hand on 1H charts. Find a clear high or low. High example yesterday 1969 was spike high (no high made after that spike), look to fade a 2% move around 1929. Market hit 1929 this morning and bounced 7-8 points, That area is then done for me.

Currently the low is 1920 so 1958 ish should be a stopping point.
Originally posted by Big Mike

Visual research by hand on 1H charts. Find a clear high or low. High example yesterday 1969 was spike high (no high made after that spike), look to fade a 2% move around 1929. Market hit 1929 this morning and bounced 7-8 points, That area is then done for me.

Currently the low is 1920 so 1958 ish should be a stopping point.


Additionally what I like is that there isn't a time constraint. A swing hi/low which is still standing can be used for reference a few days later or the same day if the 2% move comes quickly.

An example would be the low from 9/11. The 2% up move didn't occur until near end of day 9/15 for 5-6 points.
overnight high X .98 = 1897.50

low 1897.25

easy 17 points bailing before the potential area of 1915-1916
overnight low 1912.75 X 1.02= 1951

Overnight high= 1951

Easy 8 points before hitting swing high of 9/23
I'd look for a smaller win at half back 1931 area (3,4 maybe 5 points)

Originally posted by Big Mike

overnight low 1912.75 X 1.02= 1951

Overnight high= 1951

Easy 8 points before hitting swing high of 9/23
...and we're done.

Originally posted by Big Mike

I'd look for a smaller win at half back 1931 area (3,4 maybe 5 points)

Originally posted by Big Mike

overnight low 1912.75 X 1.02= 1951

Overnight high= 1951

Easy 8 points before hitting swing high of 9/23

one more if anyone's interested,,,

1951 O/N high X .98 = 1912

RTH Low= 1910.25

10 point bounce...again

Why 2%? I don't know, just observation.

Hola Manta Miguel
So if I understand the set-up as applies to 9-25-15, the daily low was 1910.25 and by adding 2%, one gets a Sell Price of 1948.45 for 9-28-15.

Do you have a chart just for this set-up in which you carry the 2% overages and underages of previous Highs and Lows that are areas of support and resistance?

I'll look at the drawdowns.

Muchisimas
JD
That's one thing I'd be looking at along with O/N extremes

Originally posted by jdrower

Hola Manta Miguel
So if I understand the set-up as applies to 9-25-15, the daily low was 1910.25 and by adding 2%, one gets a Sell Price of 1948.45 for 9-28-15.

Do you have a chart just for this set-up in which you carry the 2% overages and underages of previous Highs and Lows that are areas of support and resistance?

I'll look at the drawdowns.

Muchisimas
JD


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out 77.25 thanks mike for the set up