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# ES Thursday 8-18-16

I had somebody run some probabilities for me and based on my input he calculated that there is only a 2% chance that we don't hit EITHER an overnight midpoint or an overnight high or low on ANY day ...so those are damn good odds that any day will hit one of those 98 % of the time. From Wednesdays trade I think 75 - 76.50 and 71 are the lines to watch. We know we still have our old friend the 83 to watch on the upside too. Good luck. I like the work we are all putting into the OR trades. Very cool !

Let me add an official request to see if at some point somebody can backtest how often we hit a plus or minus 4 ? I assume it would be a huge percent of the time and the better question would be " how often do we hit it in the first 90 minutes of trade?" This is adding on to Big Mikes work he posted in Wednesdays thread. Gheesh...this may make me into a break out trader.
simple concept ....we can't take out the overnight high if we can't hold the midpoint...simple but true
when OR is 2 points or more then mechanical traders need to use a stop of 1.5 points to limit losses regardless of OR range
i change my stop to 82
so still short from 78.25
if we come back through OR low now I will take short trades and exit long runners to try for overnight low otherwise still trying for O/N high and plus 4
russel leading up and away...hoping that pulls up ES
being even more stupid move my stop to 83
torture session today...poor highs and poor lows now
why are u against the OR range today duck ?
that 79 - 80 area is a killer today...that is also the closing OR from yesterday at 4:15 P.M......so those who trade gaps should keep that closing OR in mind
bruce i got 4 trades with 1.5

1) long at 81 stopout at 79.50
2)short at 78.25 stopout at 79.75
3) long at 81 stopout at 79.50
4) long at 81 then plus 4 hit..

so loss of 5 which is still better than what i did and using the full OR as stop..

mike yes i wonder what i was doing too..slip back to the old days..everybody wants the good old days back when there old..lol got to joke about it but i know it was very bad and stupid of me to do what i did..