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ES Thursday 8-18-16


I had somebody run some probabilities for me and based on my input he calculated that there is only a 2% chance that we don't hit EITHER an overnight midpoint or an overnight high or low on ANY day ...so those are damn good odds that any day will hit one of those 98 % of the time. From Wednesdays trade I think 75 - 76.50 and 71 are the lines to watch. We know we still have our old friend the 83 to watch on the upside too. Good luck. I like the work we are all putting into the OR trades. Very cool !


Let me add an official request to see if at some point somebody can backtest how often we hit a plus or minus 4 ? I assume it would be a huge percent of the time and the better question would be " how often do we hit it in the first 90 minutes of trade?" This is adding on to Big Mikes work he posted in Wednesdays thread. Gheesh...this may make me into a break out trader.
i took the long at 80 and reversal short at 78.25 then started being stupid move my stop up..
this is so thin...all matching highs at 81.75 ...crappy lows....this has no big players in so far...garbage
I'm done at 82.25....not gonna be tortured for .50 points...close enough....difficult to watch that trade today...so much back and fill.....ridiculous...somebody else get get the plus 4 and overnight high...it won't be me
fool i am i short more at 81.75 total 4
Duck this isn't meant to be harsh and I hope it just drops like a stone but if we have a 94 % probability of an overnight high or low and we are above yesterdays close, above the overnight midpoint and above the OR high then it doesn't make sense to be short until maybe the overnight high gets taken out....and you didn't follow OR ideas today........sorry...not trying to be a pain in the ass
congrats to plus 4 and overnight high traders
well a fool and his money are always separated..todays losses 925..
no bruce you got to be harsh on me and anyone else..that was such a stupid stupid thing to do on my part..now my account is at 8833
the OR trade today is down using Or trade as stop..1) long 81 stopout at 78.25..2.75 loss x 2= 5.50 2) short 78.25 stopout 81..2.75 loss x 2 = 5.50 3) long at 81 hit plus 4 at 83 for win 2x2=4

so loss 11 and gain 4 leaves loss of 7..which is way better than the loss i took..what stupid duck i am..just change the d in duck you got the right word for me..

Opening range >2.0 points, pass and take 15 M breakout at 82.0 3 ticks of heat and zoom 2 points.

Not my trade but that's how one of the crew does it.

Duck, I really don't what you are trying do at this point. Sorry.
bruce i got 4 trades with 1.5

1) long at 81 stopout at 79.50
2)short at 78.25 stopout at 79.75
3) long at 81 stopout at 79.50
4) long at 81 then plus 4 hit..

so loss of 5 which is still better than what i did and using the full OR as stop..

mike yes i wonder what i was doing too..slip back to the old days..everybody wants the good old days back when there old..lol got to joke about it but i know it was very bad and stupid of me to do what i did..