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ES 5-22-19


In the process of making a second video.....options are only pricing in a 7.5 pt move as one standard deviation this morning....here are basic areas so far and my plan...starting small shorts in overnight at 84 even....looking to get back to 80 - 82 zone
No video below? Try this link: monday.swf








some repetition but the bottom line for me is I will not be long this market early on if the midpoint of the overnight hasn't been tested. ....the best short areas to sell frm will be the 84 - 85 and then the 89.75 - 91 area...and watch the 74 - 75 on the downside if / when we retest that
No video below? Try this link: monday_part_2.swf









here is hard copy...not much to say on weekly so didn't expand...remember options have 2388 area as a one SD move today so that adds some confluence to that zone up there
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daysession
single prints at 91 should help pull it back....volume still low
my plan is to add to short at 94 if it prints before singles fill....if it wasn't raining today i probably would't be trading now...hopefully it is worth it
I have the wednesday expiration calls in spy at strikes of 239.5 and 240 for an average price of .35...so far both are under water
interesting that we have one tic on the lows today, market volume is low and Ym and ES are out of whack...there go the singles...let see if buyers are interested before the gap fill...hope not...advance/decline not going anywhere near highs on these ES pushes up....could be an interesting close today
target for me is 90.50 not gonna let them make me suffer
they seem to be testing your patience for that 90.50!

Originally posted by BruceM

target for me is 90.50 not gonna let them make me suffer
yeah I should have just exited when singles buyers stepped in but in a dismal 8 point range I'm willing to hang in there.....and try to get at least 2 points from a trade...in some ways I'm hoping to add near 93.75 but probably will be kicking myself....as usual I keep all these later day trades much smaller then morning....
I am stalking long trades now that gap in data is filled we have 3 highs up at 92.50 so trying to buy near the R1 now....I will NOT be averaging in if I get a signal...Internals do not support a great long trade now and all I have to go on is the price action above to act as a magnet
a look at the triple tpo's at 92.50...I'm basically trading against what I really want to have happen and that is a selloff so calls sold can make money
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triples
options pricing has a 68% chance that we close below 2394.50 right now...I think it would be very cool to take out those triples and then see us touch up into 2394 -
2395 and then roll back over to downside
I'm abandoning my plan to get short if/ when all these tops get broken.....for two reasons 1) it's too late in the day and 2 ) we had a selloff friday afternoon so I don't look for many things to repeat in the market....so expecting another selloff this late would go against probabilities for me....My calls sold are under water and will evaluate them tomorrow