ES 6-5-17

Options are making a case to print or protect R1 up at 2442 or S1 down at 2429 area today....I'm bearish up here...but video goes over key areas ...more babble on it's way



price getting ahead of value examples



based on current Es options pricing they are not expecting closes beyond S1 or R1 today.......we shall see just how well the options folks can defend either of those areas the first time we hit one of them today....assuming we even can get that high or low but the idea is that the options folks may defend those one standard deviation moves which might help us with fades off those areas


edit again : basic primer of how I view these standard deviation moves and pricing from think or swim...there is much more information ( explained much better than I ever can online elsewhere) ...but this is how I think about it in relation to the day trading areas for confluence

gap in the data at 35.75 so if we are under by 2 points or more then it is ok to try for that fill in

a look at why I took that long trade even though I am more bearish then bullish in general

37.50 I pulled off last runner...that was overnight high and one tic shy of fridays close.....87 % chance we come back to 35.50 but we now have a gap in the data up at 38.75...I'd rather see that fill in and have them take out last weeks highs if I was going to day trade the short side now..so I couldn't get short with that gap in the data up there still...perhaps we can find another long in the 36 - 37 spot which is the POC from Friday

on at 37.25 to longside...keeping this real small as I don't want to be a knucklehead and lose much of previous campaign if wrong

let the gap torture begin !!!

i can't find any first 30 minute volume higher in the past 20 days...we have been warned that this buying may be getting used up and the odds of having a big trend and any great volatility are diminished ....these are dreadful trading conditions

I made one point on that trade ....LOL.....no more trades for me...hoping options will work some magic and suck out some premium today..and if real lucky we will see some selling

just pointing out that the 87 % probability of reprinting the first 30 minute vpoc just filled in ...that was also the open print so it makes sense that all the volume was there

we now have gaps at 36.75 and at 34.75....if you are bored to death and really feel the need to trade then I would wait for that 36.75 gap to fill and then hunt a short for that 34.75 but keep in mind that this is super low volume and very risky back and forth trade

36.75 filled in as I was typing...good luck from here !

wow - only one word for that exciting finish (can a 5 point range be that exciting ?) ......but that gap....... "awesome"