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ES Thursday 9-7-17


Crude oil Inventories is at 11 a.m today so be careful of back and fill and slow trade prior to that...also an inside day yesterday...Video 1 goes over key areas...Video 2...which I will add goes over standard deviations for today and the upcoming week
No video below? Try this link: vid1.swf









I'm not sure I conveyed this correctly but hopefully somebody will follow my logic in using a daily SD band probability in an attempt to capture a weekly 86% probability ....much potential with options trades too
No video below? Try this link: sd_and_weekly.swf






using 69 - 71.50 as first possible sell area to try and target 66
as much as I'd like to say I got on board that short, I can't ...I missed the trade..one tick off...but wanted to be patient and will be
if buyers can hold this now they should try to go back to the volume at 64
this is basically the same reason ( at least in my mind) they came back to the volume at 62 today ....they want to test to see if buyers will step back in.....so on a push back up into the 64 area they will want to see if sellers , from today will step back in.....the miracles of volume ....that is the basic idea I am working from down here in the 61 - 62 area now.....just because they go past a number a bit doesn't make it invalid
Yesterday was a balanced inside day.
Balance trading rules are in play.

Something to think about: yesterday had a poor day low (no excess), so the market might be gunning for that 2458.25 (yesterday's day low)
volume from an unfolding day is much harder to use in my opinion then volume that was created from a previous day....so taking long shots near the 61 - 62 is ok by me because it was generated yesterday but taking shorts if / when we trade back to 64 area is more risky as that was created today....but it's ok to use as a possible target..cash has yet to hit it's 1/2 sd move to downside so we still may see new lows here
60.50 has a gap in the data so my longs are getting out above the 63.25 highs and I will look for shorts....and this was third try on longside for me so even more of a reason to get out heavy up here
update and why that 64 is/was a magnet to me....VOLUME
No video below? Try this link: update.swf






poor low and selling tail so I can't see any reason to be long up in this area.....that report is an obvious concern
Sharp eye, Bruce.

Yesterday was an inside day with a poor low.
Today currently is another inside day with a poor low and a weak high at 2468.75.

Something's gotta give...
In my opinion this double inside day could result in a gap open higher tomorrow.
Especially with unemployment numbers coming out pre-market open.
And then little movement for the rest of the trading day, a so called 'professional gap'.
ShadowTrader on Tasty Trade explains the professional gap: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfYN780Oa4I

So today's longs could be targeting that 2471.25 - 2473.00 gap and then 2479.75 (day high 9/1).

Just a thought...