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trending


any ideas i'm looking for a trend identfy tool i know this sholud be simple but i'm so confused on my trading just looking for something to help ident. the trend

thanks
you might take a look at the ADX indicator... the general rule of thumb is the market is trending when the ADX is above 20 and rising.
Yup - ADX is the classic trend identifier.

The problem with trading though is that a trend cannot be identified as a trend until it has happened - i.e. become a trend in the past tense. If a market is chopping up and down and then breaks out you don't know if it is part of the chop or the start of a trend until the move is over.

The 'holy grail' in trading is not in an indicator but in the ability to identify a trend or z-day ahead of time. This is accomplished by establishing probabilities for a 'day type.'
I tend to look at a bigger timeframe to determen the trend and finding possible reversal times.

When trading on the 1 minute chart I look at the 3 or 5 minute chart. I try (and fail a lot) to trade only with the trend on the 3-5 minute chart.


quote:
Originally posted by rverheyen

...and finding possible reversal times.

Do you mean times of the day when reversals might happen? I have done a number of tests, I think that they are published, trying to identify time segments which are more likely to move up or down. So far, I have not found any statistical significance in any time period in the day. However, what you are talking about is a possible reversal time which is a bit different. I would imagine that if we examined the highs and lows as reversal points then you would find the beginning and end of the day the most probably times for reversals and the middle of the day the least probable.
No not times of day, I just try to ride the trend on the 1 minute, only buying after pullbacks.

When, on the 3 or 5 minutes the indicators are turning, I assume there is a trend change.

I'm only beginning to investigate this so I have no idea that it's going to work.
While you are doing this you might want to view those same charts as volume charts. So work out which volume value is best for 1, 3, and 5 minute charts and then compare those 3. For example, I worked out that a 3,000 Volume chart was approximately the same as a 1 minute chart in the E-mini S&P500 during RTH normal volume morning and late afternoon. So, by implication a 9,000V and 15,000V would approximate the 3 and 5 minute charts. This might help smooth out the lack of volume over the lunchtime periods and also allow you to incorporate an objective overnight session into your charts.
Great info!

I'll look into this.

I'm glad I found this website, you have given me a ton of information.
I hope that it helps make you one of the 10% of profitable and successful traders.