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Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

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Definition of 'Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey'

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey is also know as the Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Mfg) Survey.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas began a business tendency survey in May 2004 to assess economic activity in the state. TMOS is conducted monthly to monitor changes in the state’s manufacturing sector.

Data collection for the survey begins mid-month, and results are released near the end of each month.5 Participants receive an e-mail with a unique token permitting one-time access to a secure internet server containing the questionnaire. Answers are electronically transmitted to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The survey form is available for seven consecutive business days. Respondents are reminded that the survey is closing, and late responses are not accepted. The process is strictly confidential; the names of individual firms participating in the survey are never disclosed.

Manufacturers are asked to answer questions about their Texas operations, such as changes in production, capacity utilization, orders, inventories, prices, employees and capital expenditures. Two questions solicit opinions about all of their operations, including those outside the state. Business leaders are asked to assess company outlook and the level of general business activity.

For all questions, participants are asked whether the indicator has increased, decreased or remained unchanged. Answers cover changes over the previous month and expectations for activity six months into the future. Survey respondents are instructed that their answers should exclude the effects of normal seasonal changes.

Survey data are released on the last Monday of the month being observed. For example, September data is released on the last Monday of September. Collection of survey data typically commences nine business days prior to public release. Depending on where the last Monday falls during the month, survey data are collected starting on the second or third Tuesday of the month—thus the start of the period can be anytime between roughly the 11th and the 18th.

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