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ES Trading Probabilities


(Originally called "Bruce's Probabilities")

Bruce this is dynamite this is what I do as well but never really knew it, I would like to put it here so it wouldn't get lost;

BruceM said...


A few things I will always keep in mind based on probabilities alone:

1)The markets ability to trade back to the weekly and daily pivot...
2)The markets ability to trade towards the previous days Low or high if we open outside that range
3)The markets attempt to take out the previous days low or high if we open in the range
4) the markets ability to run the overnight low and/or high
5)The markets ability to break last weeks high or low if we open in that range on the first day of the week..



I would add that the markets attempt to move in a monthly bar as a daily bar. That is a month that makes new lows tends to do so most of the month and reverse for highs, and a chop month tends to stay choppy.
Yes, OR is the first full minute of trading in RTH....

yes on r3 and s3...as long as we don't print 5 points below S3 we should close above it...so 87.50 is critical print
Why I keep asking for the closing time for Crude Oil and stocks is because at this time in my opinion there is a liquidity point that can be trade as another RTH open.
Yesterdays low is in the 887 area. As I type the market is trading in the 892.50 area which was the high volume area from Monday. 90 minutes or more left until we open in RTH....

I mentioned this because if we opened up here ( 4 points higher from the close), I would not take OR long trades . The reason is that we have an 85% chance of taking out the previous days low or high and I think that the low will be run out....we also have a pivot number at 894.50...which is different then the 898 number posted on the site...I'm using rth only....just an FYI to explain how I would be looking to trade the probabilities....

I also expect two sided trade around the open print since it didn't happen yesterday...so if we open and rally up then we must look for sells to return to the open price...
I'll try to keep this on topic from here.....we've hit the pivot , the overnight high and the plus 4..in the first 40 minutes..how we utilize these concepts are up to the reader and I'll refrain from posting actual real time trade ideas from here...

A probability to add is this: The markets ability to break the Monday-Tuesday range sometime before the next Monday - Tuesday range completes


And these
we can't forget about the gap close probabilities!!!!! Monday is the worst day for those to fill in the ES....
Ok we've closed the gap and took out yesterdays Low and the overnight low......not much more to say.......this thread will get real old by me pointing out what has happened....so we'll leave it here and If anyone has anything that they feel happens a very high percent of the time then please add it...
Market in my opinion wants to go down now to close the gap it created at 8:30 est
Bruce,

Do you look to fade all premarket hi/lows? Like today @ 10:00 the market was moving up into the pre-markets hi of 900 were you shorting there or do you use other filters?
I did fade that today joe and got stopped out ...I like to see where the plus 4 will be and how we respond to the opening ramge
quote:
Originally posted by ak1

Market in my opinion wants to go down now to close the gap it created at 8:30 est




Good call ak1 you really hit the nail on the head, I had 14points on a long from yesterday I figured we were heading up to fill Fridays gap @ 914, that plan backfired and lost 50% of profits.
cool ak1....that beautiful gap on the one minute after the report struck at 8:30..that was the air I was targeting on my initial 900 fade that failed early on in the RTH hours..thanks
read this thread here to learn about the "Window".....plus and minus 4 and 8 numbers are part of the window

http://www.mypivots.com/Board/Topic/1337/1/pitbull-three-strategy