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ES Trading Probabilities

(Originally called "Bruce's Probabilities")

Bruce this is dynamite this is what I do as well but never really knew it, I would like to put it here so it wouldn't get lost;

BruceM said...

A few things I will always keep in mind based on probabilities alone:

1)The markets ability to trade back to the weekly and daily pivot...
2)The markets ability to trade towards the previous days Low or high if we open outside that range
3)The markets attempt to take out the previous days low or high if we open in the range
4) the markets ability to run the overnight low and/or high
5)The markets ability to break last weeks high or low if we open in that range on the first day of the week..

I would add that the markets attempt to move in a monthly bar as a daily bar. That is a month that makes new lows tends to do so most of the month and reverse for highs, and a chop month tends to stay choppy.
Knowledge of the probabilities helped me today and I'm pointing this out for reference,....I rarely take breakout trades from the first hour range but we knew before hand that the previous days high, the overnight high and the Monday-tuesday range all had not been run out buying that breakout turned out to be a good idea...we also know that the weekly pivot didnot trade to last week and so far this week we haven't hit it yet either......yet!!!
weekly pivot hit at 917.50 today
Thanks for all the info on this thread. What is the +4 and the +8?
read this thread here to learn about the "Window" and minus 4 and 8 numbers are part of the window