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10 - 14 Feb, Fib Stretch, price reversal points, accuracy


Howdy,
Basis YMH1, look at these Stretch calculation price rotations:

10 Feb Stretch = 27, 2.618=70 and 4.25% of the Stretch = 114
11 Feb Stretch = 26, 2.618=68 and 4.25% of the Stretch = 110
14 Feb Stretch = 29, 2.618=75 and 4.25% of the Stretch = 123

10 Feb B session last hour price rotation high:
12204 (12:49PST) - 74 pts to 12130 (11 Feb @ 02:22PST)
10 Feb 2.618% of the Stretch = 75.

From 12130 YMH1 reversed up...
11 Feb 12130 + 117 to 12247 (11 Feb 08:03PST)
11 Feb 4.25% of the Stretch = 110

12247 reversed 55 pts lower ... into the first 14 Feb A session low at 12192, i.e., 11 Feb price decline from 12247 - 14 Feb 12192 reversal low.
12247 - 55 = 12192 ... 2.618% of 11 Feb Stretch = 68
55 pts = 47% of 117 is close enough for a 50% pullback,
where prices reversed higher (look for pullbacks like this after a 4.25% trending move. This is one type of trade entry technique.)

14 Feb Stretch = 29, 2.618% fo Stretch = 75 and 4.25% of Stretch =125,
12192 reversed up ...
12192 + 76 to 12268 ..... 12268 failed 60 pts to 12208

14 Feb is a narrow range day, i.e., lack of investor buying conviction. First trading day of February expiration week the Dow has been down four of the last 6. Day before President's day weekend, S&P down 16 of the last 19. February expiration day, the Dow has been down seven of the last eleven. (Source: Stock Trader's Alamanac 2011, pg 27). This is one of the techniques I use to fade (time and project price reversals) YMH1 price action.
Today, YMHI dipped down to 12210, a retracement to the PP as well as close to the stretch downward projection from the open.
Today's NR day may help develop a larger range day tomorrow, or not. I guess the open bar range, 5 min, will give the clue for the rest of day's range.