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Verifying Hunters method

Starting this journal to properly understand Hunter's method and also run the method through the paces. Will start from Sun (5/14)

For the first trade:
YMM1 settled at 12556
Stretch: 37
1.612 of 37=59.64; say 60
Fade first move at either:
whichever occurs first.
S/L @20 points after trade trigerred
Take profit at 3x37
Nicely done insyte. The 'fade the first 1.618% of the Stretch basis the (3, -1) formula' strategy is the trending formula, i.e., (3,-1).

There's another side to the trending (3, -1) formula, i.e., the counter trend formula, [(3,-1), (3, -2), and (3, -3)]; after which the (3,-1) formula should resume.

I look forward to your successful outcome.
Where does the 37 number come from? Is that some % of YM.

I do see the 42 and 60-70 range popping up all the time.

There is ascending support in the 516-518 area, which is 556-40....
After that drain on Fri I could see Asia+EU driving it down 60 tonight to 490-500 area......

They could ramp it before the Asia Open which I would prefer for a short....but we'll see.
Hi Grednfer,
Each day's Stretch calculation can be found at ... ... DAILY NOTES, ... e-mini $5 Dow futures (YMM1) .... and scroll to the bottom. Here's the 16 May link:

And the Stretch calculation definition link is at ...

I look forward to hearing your success.
My bad,... 37 is the 16 May Stretch calculation. The 42 point, 60 point and 70 point reversals are each a few points away from the Stretch, 1.618% of the Stretch and 2.618% of the Stretch. They may reflect the small trader opening a trending position after a 42, 60 or 70 point price move has printed. (An unsympathetically cruel phrase, "S&P minute" was created and bantered about by those degenerate creatures of darkness who laugh when the small trader acted on a moving average buy / sell signal after the beginning of a reversal, i.e., prices continue a little further than the respective high / low, produce a cross over, prompt novice traders to enter ... prices reverse and retrace back through their entry point to the lower end of the range. Ultimately taking the small trader's money in an "S&P minute." Think of this type of a reversal in a Stretch consolidation or a 1.618% of the Stretch consolidation that narrows going into the close on Friday 13 May 2011. Thanks for posting the chart.

The previous reply provides you with the link and the description. The 42, 60 and 70 point reversals (and those reversals half way between 2.618% and 4.25%) may be the noise before the reversal.

More accurately, several YMM1 trading days, before Friday 13 May, produced an approximate average of 76 points, i.e., 1.618% of the Stretch calculation was reversing in those situations around 70 points.

16 May:
Stretch = 37
1.618% of the Stretch = 59
2.618% of the Stretch = 96
4.25% of the Stretch = 157.
I meant to ask how does one arrive at the 37 to start with? Am i really missing something...Is it fixed or variable.

If I were to translate the technique to another Index like the number 4? So then the fade move for ES would be buy 1327.5 or sell 1340.5?

They all tend to move together, especially in a panic, its just their lengths that vary.
Sorry, found the fine now.....
There is overlap between the stat algos we run and your method....just trying to isolate.
15:45DPT long YMM1 at 12524 (low=12511) faded first move lower at 12556 - Stretch = 12519... after a one minute chart basing pattern in the first hour after the 16 May A session open.
so far no trade for me per above method; waiting for YM long to trigger at 12496, per calc in first post. trying to keep the method simple. when 12496 triggered, S/L will be 12476.
Basis YMM1 fading 1.618% of the Stretch, added new longs to 12524 long, i.e., 12496 (low= 12489).
first long trigerred at 12496. paper trade only. s/l @12476.
Thanks for posting your shared mutual interests. Last night I faded the first move by the Stretch calculation, risked eight YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures), and opened a trailing stop, which was filled. The trailing stop performed with the offset. The (3) of (3, -1) didn't complete the price action projection. Knowing whether to fade the Stretch or 1.618% of the Stretch calculation is determined by the trader's perspective, not a cookie cutter price following mechanism. It's more useful as a price level assessment tool that can be used to identify whether an entry / exit is wise.

Here's my post elsewhere:
YMZ1 (December $5 Dow futures): Trading the (3, -1) formula from unchanged, ... fading the first move at the Stretch (46 pts) calculation (because every attempt above 12000 has failed recently), i.e., 12007 + 46 = 12053 (high = 12060, so far, risking $40 at one tick above the high). This represents the faded entry, i.e., (-1) of (3, -1). 12053 - 46 - 46 - 46 = 11915.

Insyte: I didn't post through the Summer, but am interested in your back testing of the (3, -1) formula. A physicist published the formula about ten years ago. The markets are mecurial and I don't expect a consistent long term tool. But, I have noticed that it works well when professional traders are gaming the system.... like when 'they' are waiting for global uncertainty to stabilize, or not.

The (3,-1) intra-day trading technique, like anything else, is not perfect. A few months ago you could sell the equity indicies when Europe's markets opened and buy back that short when those markets in Europe closed. Just an example of how nothing lasts, however, this price action pattern does tend to repeat on and off through each year. Earlier this year, for several weeks, sideways price action was rotating around 1.618% and 2.618% of the Stretch, but within the typical price action that tends to print directly or inversely around 4.25% of the Stretch.

Yorkmax: I started intra-day trading equity index futures in 1984 and have seen many different technical analysis tools perform well at times, but not at other times. (Ken Shaleen sells a Technical Analysis Characteristic Reliability Index, which I can summarize. Equity index futures are one of the worst markets when technical analysis is applied to, and tends to produce less than tradeable probabilities (+72%). You can't buy the strategy, but you can learn when, and how to use it. Sometimes the (3, -1) formula initiates an opportunity with mid-session support / resistance.

Special note: The Delta Society has published a tool, The Delta Phenomenon, which allows for a new beginning, i.e., instead of 1-10, as they count, it prints, 1, 1A, 2-10. They've (reportedly, and I have their book,) 200+ years of data to back up their "formula," or "theory," or "recipe," or whatever you want to call it. For the purposes of bright, brief and gone, look on a daily 45 Dow futures chart and pick a low, counting four days. The equity index futures are notoriously late by a day or two, but on the first late day, the odds of a reversal increase to 70%, and on the second late day the odds of a reversal increase to +80%.

My point, I've been recognizing that alternate ... 1, 1A, ... (3, -1) price projection.

I am looking forward to your shared mutual interests.