No registration required! (Why?)

ES Wednesday 1-11-12


Seeing that the Compx and the russel haven't taken over their late October highs should be a concern for the longs....Obvious keys will be the 89 high you Monkey mentioned , the 83 high and all this volume from the holiday trade in the 74 area.

I don't like when everyone talks about a certain pattern like this rising wedge in the S&P. It seems too obvious. I always assume that if my 10 year old can see it than everyone can see it. Now does that become a self fullfilling prophecy and because everyone sees it then it fuels buying or is the smart money selling out into the obvious public hands? Sure wish I had the answer

Lets see what the O/N does
I also had key number at 81 so we can't trade the pitbull in isolation unless u like mechanical trading
the mechanical pitbullers would have sold the open print after we rallied 2.5 points above the open print...that was the only official trade so far..


83 is still the magnet to try and break away from
next leg should be down in this "m" pattern but the problem is we would need to sell right at this 83 area and that is a tuff trade..

50% back is here now too
hopefully most can see how they worked the "window"....2.5 points up and 2.5 points down ( a tic shy on my data)...agressive traders will try and fiqure out where the plus or minus 4 will hit today and use the opening print as a fiter...I think on that type of trade it is safer to use the opening RANGE instead of the open print
so with that said the agressive trader will exepect 87 ( 83 plus 4)to print as long as 81.75 ( the OR low ) holds
Originally posted by BruceM

hopefully most can see how they worked the "window"....2.5 points up and 2.5 points down ( a tic shy on my data)...agressive traders will try and fiqure out where the plus or minus 4 will hit today and use the opening print as a fiter...I think on that type of trade it is safer to use the opening RANGE instead of the open print


How do you define the opening range and the open print?
Originally posted by BruceM

I think on that type of trade it is safer to use the opening RANGE instead of the open print


Bruce, do you mean edges of the first 30-min range +/- 4 points?
The open print is the first price that shows up on my chart in the day session...today that was 1283.......

the opening range is the first minute of trade...the high and low of that range....so u just look at the first minute bar and snap the high and the low if that makes it easier

here is my chart with the opening range lines snapped just for reference...

also note the perfect hit on the plus 4 and then the rollover back to the OR high....great instructional day today
Click image for original size
or



and just remember like I said a week or two ago that we don't have to worry about the pitbull window being overused....most reading this right now will dismiss the "window" as pure crap...LOL....Is that you ? Most will need fancy stuff to justify their existence ....I say to keep it simple....the pitbull keeps it simple and we can use it as a guidline.....
I'm not trying to insult the forum with my comments above...it's just that many use methods that are so confusing that the can't think fast enough to trade and then they wonder why they aren't making money daytrading.

the first 90 minuste is when they like to probe the market to see if buyers/sellers will be attracted to breakout ranges etc.....most often it just auctions up to suck in the dumb money buyers and is only used for the smart money to SELL...

the market will auction down to attract the dumb money who sell breakdowns...but it really is an opportunity for the smart money to BUY...


most times the market will revert back to value....when they trend it then we lose...it comes with the business and we accept that and move on..


my speech is over and my soapbox is kicked aside
Bruce,
You can stay on that soapbox all you want. It's an extremely valuable platform
Hi Horse and welcome...I don't think it is the same thing but please keep us posted..there is lots of great work going on with probabilities and I'm sure most of us here would enjoy seeing some statistics on moves off the open.

Perhaps you can repost the ideas here on a daily basis if they will let you..
Originally posted by horse43

Enjoy the great info everyday Bruce!

When you reference OR what timeframe is best to use? 5 minutes is the norm I believe.

Haven't seen much on +/-4 on these boards off the open before. But i think any +/- 4 handle move in the first 30 minutes is a significant event and gives some good clues the rest of the day especially when put into context. will definitely be looking more into a pitbull approach because there is definitely something there and i feel with all the imbalances at open, there is a lot of reversion back to open to find some balance.

I've have seen something about the +/-4 moves from another site. I found a site recently and have been following it that has a section devoted to this and whether they are a fade or a go with, think it's sort of based off the Crabel stuff too.

when doing some research on trading with probability i did a google search of trading probability and came up with it, its 6 links down on google, don't want to advertise this in anyway so if you want to search for it you can!